Search Results
Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say
The majority of economic indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee tracks to identify U.S. recessions are still showing growth. How have these measures behaved around past recessions?
The Puzzle of Multinationals’ Profits: Why Tax Havens Yield Higher Returns
An analysis examines how U.S. multinationals’ tax and profit-shifting strategies might affect yields on direct investment in tax havens versus G7 economies.
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on U.S. Multinationals’ Intangible Assets
This paper investigates the impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on U.S. multinationals’ intangibles. We develop a theoretical model that incorporates key provisions of the TCJA—the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) and the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII)—and derive testable implications for changes in licensing and patent transfer patterns. Using data on international royalty flows and patent assignments, we test the model’s predictions. Our findings suggest that the TCJA may have impacted profit shifting strategies through intangibles, aligning with our ...
Japan’s Consolidated Balance Sheet and Challenges for Monetary Policy
An analysis breaks down Japan’s consolidated balance sheet and considerations surrounding fiscal and monetary policies.
What Does History Reveal about Reducing the National Debt Burden?
A look at the U.S. national debt since World War II reveals that economic growth and fiscal austerity (i.e., spending cuts and raising taxes) are two of the ways to reduce the debt burden.
Bank Reserves since the Start of Quantitative Tightening
The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet since mid-2022, which also trims the overall level of bank reserves. What other factors might be affecting the demand for bank reserves?
What Lessons Can Be Drawn from Japan’s High Debt-to-GDP Ratio?
Taking into account other public liabilities and assets can provide a clearer picture when comparing Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio with that of the U.S.
Journal Article
The Recent Rise of U.S. National Wealth
The latest large surge in the U.S. wealth-to-GDP ratio has dwarfed the peaks seen in the past.
Journal Article
Central Bank Balance Sheets and Policy Rate Decisions
A comparison of four major central banks shows that those with larger balance sheets relative to GDP in early 2021 had lower policy interest rates in 2023.