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Journal Article
A nation of spendthrifts? An analysis of trends in personal and gross saving
The steep drop in the U.S. personal saving rate over the last decade has fueled speculation that Americans are spending recklessly. But alternative measures of personal saving show that households are actually setting aside a larger share of their resources than the official figures suggest. In addition, government saving has risen markedly, leading to an increase in overall domestic saving that has helped finance a surge in U.S. investment.
Journal Article
Chain-weighting: the new approach to measuring GDP
Recent dramatic changes in the U.S. economy's structure have compelled BEA to revise the way in which it measures real GDP levels and growth. By switching to a chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth--which relies heavily on current price information--BEA will be able to measure GDP growth more accurately by eliminating upward biases in the incoming data.
Report
The relative importance of national and regional factors in the New York Metropolitan economy
This paper explores the connections between broad indicators of economic conditions in the New York Metropolitan area and their national counterparts. Our examination provides two different views of the metropolitan economy. First, as is well known, employment growth in the region over the last seven years has been very poor, both in absolute terms and relative to the nation, suggesting a region in decline. On the other hand, the region's income growth has been considerably better, suggesting a region whose goods and services remain in healthy demand. Some methods of analyzing the data ...
Conference Paper
Housing activity, home values, and consumer spending
The current expansion has seen record-high levels of transactions in housing, extraordinary growth in the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, and large increases in the amount of funds realized from the refinancing of mortgage debt. Many analysts thus have pointed to the strong housing market and rising home prices as a major pillar supporting recent economic growth and have expressed concern that a contraction in housing activity and values could pose a significant risk to consumer spending and real economic growth. This paper explores the channels by which the housing market may ...
Journal Article
Regional employment trends in the Second District
It is well known that job growth in the Second District as a whole has not kept pace with national trends over the last few years. This article offers a different perspective by assessing job trends in specific regions within the District. The authors conclude that employment growth has resumed in most of the District and that in areas such as Northern New Jersey and Albany, the gaps with the national data are either small or narrowing. The areas in the District that have been lagging are mainly those feeling the effects of corporate restructuring and defense cutsills that should abate over ...
Journal Article
Evaluating recent trends in capital formation
Journal Article
The impact of reduced inflation estimates on real output and productivity growth
Despite posting their strongest sustained performance in many years, recent measures of output and productivity growth have still fallen short of their 1960-73 averages. Could data-measurement problems affecting the pricing of some services account for the inability of these widely tracked U.S. growth indexes to match their earlier rates?
Journal Article
The effect of tax changes on consumer spending
Many supporters of the tax cut enacted this summer viewed it as an important stimulus to consumer spending. But an analysis of the effects of earlier income tax cuts suggests that the consumer response to such initiatives is, in fact, quite variable. Two conclusions stand out: First, consumers will be more likely to boost spending if the change in tax liabilities is permanent. Second, consumers will wait to increase spending until a tax change affects their take-home pay.
Journal Article
The recession's impact on the state budgets of New York and New Jersey
In the wake of the most recent U.S. recession, both New York State and New Jersey have faced multibillion-dollar budget gaps. An analysis of the makeup of their budgets reveals that the states' heavy reliance on personal income taxes--particularly from high-wage earners in the finance sector--has exacerbated revenue shortfalls. To close their budget gaps, New York and New Jersey have had to make difficult choices about tax increases and service cuts. In the future, the states might take steps to avert such budget quandaries by establishing "rainy day" funds or restructuring taxes to make ...