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Author:Stein, Jeremy C. 

Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t+1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t-2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: Net debt ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-28

Journal Article
Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission? commentary

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Economic Policy Review , Volume 8 , Issue May , Pages 267-270

Conference Paper
Jackson Hole 2023 - Structural Changes in Financial Markets and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Conference Paper
Does function follow organizational form? evidence from the lending practices of large and small banks

Proceedings , Paper 815

Conference Paper
Banks as liquidity providers: an explanation for the co-existence of lending and deposit-taking

Proceedings , Paper 582

Working Paper
Credit conditions and the cyclical behavior of inventories

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 93-7

Conference Paper
Rethinking capital regulation

Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Working Paper
Monetary policy and credit conditions: evidence from the composition of external finance

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 154

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