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Working Paper
Household portfolios in the United States
This paper investigates the composition of households' assets and liabilities in the United States. Using aggregate and survey data, we document major trends in household portfolios in the past 15 years. We show that, despite the broad array of financial products available, the portfolio of the typical household remains fairly simple and safe, consisting of a checking account, savings account, and tax-deferred retirement account; in 1998, less than half of all households owned some form of stock. We use pooled data from the Survey of Consumer Finances to investigate determinants of portfolio ...
Journal Article
Recent Changes in U.S. Family Finances: Results from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances
Using data from the Federal Reserve Board's two most recent Surveys of Consumer Finances, this article provides a detailed picture of changes in the financial condition of U.S. families between 1995 and 1998. The financial situation of families changed notably in the three-year period. While income continued a moderate upward trend, net worth grew strongly, and the increase in net worth was broadly shared by different demographic groups. A booming stock market accounts for a substantial part of the rise in net worth, but the data also suggest that improvements in financial circumstances ...
Journal Article
Family Finance in the U.S.: Recent Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Using data that have just become available from the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances along with data from the 1989 and 1992 versions of the survey, this article provides a detailed picture of recent changes in the income, net worth, assets, and liabilities of U.S. families. It also presents information on families' saving, unrealized capital gains, debt payments, and institutional providers of credit. Of the developments the article reports, a few are particularly noteworthy. First, between the 1992 and 1995 surveys, both median family income and median family net worth rose in constant ...
Working Paper
The measurement of consumer expectations using survey data
Surveys of consumers collect considerable information on consumer expectations. However, the simple categorical structure of the questions -- such as "Do you expect your income to rise, fall, or stay the same?" -- makes their value for research uncertain. This paper analyzes the information content of the survey measures. I draw on Manski's finding that, while categorical questions do not identify the probability of an event occurring, they do provide information on probability bounds. I analyze data from two well-known surveys, showing that, although the bounds are often wide, for some ...
Working Paper
The effects of weather on retail sales
Monthly fluctuations in consumer spending are often attributed to the weather. This paper presents a model in which weather affects the productivity of time in nonmarket activities (such as shopping or recreation), and so, via time and budget constraints, may induce substitution in spending across goods and over time. Using monthly data on retail sales and weather data from the National Weather Service, I find that unusual weather has a modest but significant role in explaining monthly sales fluctuations. However, lagged effects often offset original effects, so that weather's influence tends ...
Working Paper
Saving and financial planning: some findings from a focus group
This paper summarizes the results of a focus group on saving and financial planning. The group consisted of eight individuals with relatively high income and wealth. The savings behavior of such people is of interest partly due to their large contribution to total personal saving. The participants expressed concerns about how their circumstances will change as they age, and about uncertainties in income and health. While these concerns are consistent with theories emphasizing life-cycle and precautionary motives, the idea that saving involves self-control was also mentioned repeatedly.
Working Paper
Market definition in banking: recent evidence
Antitrust analysis of bank mergers defines banking markets to be geographically local and to consist of the cluster of financial products supplied by commercial banks. This definition is based on assumptions about households' and small businesses' behavior in purchasing banking services. This article utilizes data from the Survey of Consumer Finances to examine how households' use of financial services and institutions changed between 1989 and 1998. We investigate the extent to which households still focus their purchases of financial services at local depository institutions, as opposed to ...
Working Paper
The replacement demand for motor vehicles: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
The motor vehicle industry has undergone important changes in recent years, including a shift in production from autos to light trucks and growth of vehicle leasing. This paper uses household-level data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances to document changes in households' acquisitions and financing of motor vehicles from 1989 to 2001. We examine what types of vehicles households had, what financing arrangements were used to acquire them, and how vehicle holdings vary with such household characteristics as income, age, wealth, and creditworthiness. The data provide useful ...
Journal Article
Guaranteeing disaster
Moral hazard in the insurance industry.