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U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses
U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously. Modern models applied to the U.S. reveal that tariffs can enhance consumer welfare via terms-of-trade gains, a costly externality on foreign partners, but only if those partners don’t retaliate. Thus, potential consumption gains for U.S. households and businesses depend on policy choices and strategic responses from trading partners.
Journal Article
A real appreciation for recent exchange-rate movements
Recent movements in real exchange rates? a measure of relative prices? in the euro area and Japan are consistent with long-run adjustments toward levels predicted by economic fundamentals.
Journal Article
Value-added data recast the U.S.-China trade deficit
Value-added trade data provide a needed complementary measure to conventional compilations to aid in the understanding of bilateral interdependence.
Journal Article
U.S. productivity growth flowing downstream
Measurements of U.S. productivity growth have declined, particularly in the high-tech sector. This may reflect increased U.S. specialization in upstream activities in the global supply chain. Those activities tend to experience slower productivity growth.
Journal Article
Brexit Through the Gift Shop: No Refunds
The effects of Brexit through higher barriers to trade could cost British households the equivalent of 428 British pounds annually or $580 in 2016 prices. Effects across the rest of the EU would vary, but countries that trade extensively with the United Kingdom, such as Ireland, stand to incur the greatest losses.
Journal Article
Steeling the U.S. Economy for the Impacts of Tariffs
Proposed steel and aluminum tariffs would likely trim a quarter percent from the U.S. gross domestic product over the long run. U.S. metals industries would likely expand, while heavy industries, such as machines and equipment, would probably contract along with aggregate capital formation. The main risks lie in the potential for retaliation by trading partners and the possibility of a trade war.
Journal Article
Deindustrialization redeploys workers to growing service sector
The decline of industrial employment in advanced economies is part of a long-term structural transition. A growing service sector, with an increasing share of jobs, has become key to long-run productivity growth.
Report
The Effect of Globalization on Market Structure, Industry Evolution and Pricing
he Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute and Swiss National Bank enlisted researchers from both sides of the Atlantic for a conference focused on the determinants and dynamics of prices in a globalized economy. Increased globalization has heightened research and policy interest in external factors as drivers of inflation. Firms? pricing decisions are at the core of the analysis.
Report
Conference on International Economics
Globalization has led to increased integration across countries in goods markets and financial markets and has changed the environment in which policy operates. As a result, researchers in the various subfields have developed new methods to study and measure the consequences of globalization. To better understand these developments, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas? Globalization Institute and the University of Houston brought together researchers from academic institutions and the Federal Reserve System for a conference focusing on international trade and prices and on international ...
Report
Navigating the Structure of the Global Economy
The Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute?s primary focus is developing a better understanding of how the process of deepening economic integration among countries of the world, or globalization, alters the environment in which U.S. monetary policy decisions are made. In this article, I discuss how my research contributes to this mission. I emphasize the interaction between increased globalization and the changing structure of economic activity, and how these phenomena affect the ways economists evaluate key economic trade-offs.