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Journal Article
Financial crises in emerging markets
Moreno, Ramon; Glick, Reuven; Spiegel, Mark M. (2001)
This Economic Letter briefly reviews 11 papers that provide analytical perspectives and new empirical evidence on the causes of these crises as well as the appropriate policy responses. These papers, prepared for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco?s Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, have been collected in Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (edited by R. Glick, R. Moreno, and M. Spiegel), published in 2001 by Cambridge University Press.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit
Spiegel, Mark M.; Rose, Andrew K. (2002)
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. We develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2002-09

Working Paper
Who drove the boom in euro-denominated bond issues?
Hale, Galina; Spiegel, Mark M. (2008)
We make use of micro-level data for over 45,000 private bonds issued by over 5000 firms from 22 countries in 1990-2006 to analyze the impact that the launch of the EMU had on the currency denomination of the bond issues. To our knowledge, ours is the first systematic analysis of issue at the micro level. The use of the micro data allows us to distinguish between the response to the advent of the euro by new and seasoned bond issuers, and to condition on other issue characteristics. We find that the impact on new issuers is larger than on seasoned issuers and that most of the increase in the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-20

Journal Article
New evidence on state economic development spending and manufacturing employment
Spiegel, Mark M. (1996)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
A theory of North-South customs unions
Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo; Spiegel, Mark M. (1995)
We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that treatment of foreign investment, inducing additional foreign capital inflows. Moreover, the impact of the accord on Southern credibility is directly increasing in the gains from trade between the two partner countries. We also demonstrate that the presence of sovereign risk changes the tradeoffs between trade creation and diversion, enhancing the potential for welfare-increasing trade-diverting North-South regional trade accords.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 95-06

Working Paper
Domestic bond markets and inflation
Spiegel, Mark M.; Rose, Andrew K. (2015-02-17)
This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly-traded, long-maturity, domestic-currency bond market. Bond holders are exposed to capital losses through inflation and therefore represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether their influence is apparent both theoretically and empirically. We develop a simple theoretical model with heterogeneous agents where the issuance of such bonds leads to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate. We then check this prediction empirically using a panel of data, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-5

Working Paper
The Bank Lending Channel Is Back
Spiegel, Mark M. (2025-02-11)
The period following the global financial crisis was marked by low interest rates and low responsiveness of bank lending to monetary policy. This led some to conclude that the bank lending channel for monetary policy to influence economic activity had weakened. This paper revisits the responsiveness of the bank lending channel using a bank-level panel of US Call Report data and updated measures of U.S. monetary policy shocks. Results indicate that the efficacy of the bank lending channel increased over our sample period. We find tepid responses in bank lending to monetary shocks from 2012H1 ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2025-04

Working Paper
Persistent Effects of the Paycheck Protection Program and the PPPLF on Small Business Lending
Dufresne, Lora; Spiegel, Mark M. (2024-08-07)
Using bank-level U.S. Call Report data, we examine the longer-term effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the PPP Liquidity Facility on small business (SME) lending. Our sample runs through the end of 2023H1, by which time almost all PPP loans were forgiven or repaid. To identify a causal impact of program participation, we instrument based on historical bank relationships with the Small Business Administration and the Federal Reserve discount window prior to the onset of the pandemic. Elevated bank participation in both programs was positively associated with a substantial ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-26

Journal Article
Fixed-premium deposit insurance and international credit crunches
Spiegel, Mark M. (1996)
This article introduces a monopolistically competitive model of foreign lending in which both explicit and implicit fixed-premium deposit insurance increase the degree to which bank participation in relending to problem debtors falls below its globally optimal level. This provides a channel for fixed-premium deposit insurance to inhibit credit extension in bad states, resulting in an increase in the expected default percentage and an increase in the expected burden on the deposit insurance institutions.
Economic Review

Journal Article
Moral hazard under the Japanese \"convoy\" banking system
Spiegel, Mark M. (1999)
This paper examines a banking regime similar to the "convoy" scheme which prevailed in Japan through most of the 1990s. Insolvent banks are merged with solvent banks rather than closed, with the acquiring banks required to accept negative value banks at zero value. I demonstrate that a convoy scheme effectively taxes the acquiring bank and increases moral hazard by reducing bank effort towards enhancing its portfolio, even relative to a fixed-premium deposit insurance system, for negative value banks. However, for positive bank charter values, which are retained under the convoy scheme ...
Economic Review

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