Search Results
Working Paper
Stressed Banks? Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review
We study short-term and medium-term changes in bank risk-taking as a result of supervision, and the associated real effects. For identification, we exploit the European Central Bank's asset-quality review (AQR) in conjunction with security and credit registers. After the AQR announcement, reviewed banks reduce riskier securities and credit supply, with the greatest effect on riskiest securities. We find negative spillovers on asset prices and firm-level credit availability. Moreover, non-banks with higher exposure to reviewed banks acquire the shed risk. After the AQR compliance, reviewed ...
Discussion Paper
Measurement and Effects of Supply Chain Bottlenecks Using Natural Language Processing
Supply chain bottlenecks can have significant impacts on the real economy. When firms experience shortages, shipping delays, or shutdowns, as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, they may be unable to produce, transport, and sell their products.
Working Paper
Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis
This paper examines the link between industrial production and the sentiment expressed in natural language survey responses from U.S. manufacturing firms. We compare several natural language processing (NLP) techniques for classifying sentiment, ranging from dictionary-based methods to modern deep learning methods. Using a manually labeled sample as ground truth, we find that deep learning models partially trained on a human-labeled sample of our data outperform other methods for classifying the sentiment of survey responses. Further, we capitalize on the panel nature of the data to train ...
Working Paper
Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation
We explore a new source of data on layoffs: timely 8-K filings with the Securities and and Exchange Commission. We develop measures of both the number of reported layoff events and the number of affected workers. These series are highly correlated with the business cycle and other layoff indicators. Linking firm-level reported layoff events with WARN notices suggests that 8-K filings are sometimes available before WARN notices, and preliminary regression results suggest our layoff series are useful for forecasting. We also document the industry composition of the data and specific areas ...
Working Paper
Trademarks in Banking
One in five banks in the United States share a similar name. This can increase the likelihood of confusion among customers in the event of an idiosyncratic shock to a similarly named bank. We find that banks that share their name with a failed bank experience a half percent drop in transaction deposits relative to banks with similar characteristics but different name. This effect doubles for failures that are covered in media. We rationalize our findings via a model of financial contagion without fundamental linkages. Our model explains that when distinguishing banks is more costly due to ...
Working Paper
Inside the Boardroom: Evidence from the Board Structure and Meeting Minutes of Community Banks
Community banks are critical for local economies, yet research on their corporate governance has been scarce due to limited data availability. We explore a unique, proprietary dataset of board membership and meeting minutes of failed community banks to present several stylized facts regarding their board structure and meetings. Community bank boards have fewer members and a higher percentage of insiders than larger publicly traded banks, and experience little turnover during normal times. Their meetings are held monthly and span about two hours. During times of distress, community bank boards ...