Search Results
Discussion Paper
U.S. Corporations' Repatriation of Offshore Profits: Evidence from 2018
We investigate how companies with large holdings of cash abroad have used those funds following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which eliminated prior tax disincentives on the repatriation of foreign earnings.
Working Paper
To Cut or Not to Cut? On the Impact of Corporate Taxes on Employment and Income
Do corporate tax increases destroy jobs? And do corporate tax cuts boost employment? Answering these questions has proved empirically challenging. We propose an identification strategy that exploits variation in corporate income tax rates across U.S. states. Comparing contiguous counties straddling state borders over the period 1970 to 2010, we find that increases in corporate tax rates lead to significant reductions in employment and income. We find little evidence that corporate tax cuts boost economic activity, unless implemented during recessions when they lead to significant increases in ...
Discussion Paper
The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns
Over the past two decades, the corporate profits of stock market listed firms have been substantially boosted by declining interest rate expenses and lower corporate tax rates. This note's key finding is that the reduction in interest and tax expenses is responsible for a full one-third of all profit growth for S&P 500 nonfinancial firms over the prior two-decade period.
Working Paper
End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns
I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly ...
Discussion Paper
Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
In this note, we use econometric methods to infer which economic and financial indicators reliably identify and predict recessions.
Working Paper
Policy Externalities and Banking Integration
Can policies directed at the banking sector in one jurisdiction spill over and affect real economic activity elsewhere? To investigate this question, I exploit changes in tax rates on bank profits across U.S. states. Banks respond by reallocating small-business lending to otherwise unaffected states. Moreover, counties in non-tax-changing states that have more exposure to treated banks experience greater changes in lending, which in turn impacts local employment. The findings demonstrate that policies aimed at the banking sector in one jurisdiction can impose externalities on other regions. ...
Working Paper
How sensitive is the economy to large interest rate increases? Evidence from the taper tantrum
The “taper tantrum” of 2013 represents one of the largest monetary policy shocks since the 1980s. During this episode, long-term interest rates spiked 100 basis points—a move unintentionally induced by policymakers. However, this had no observable negative effect on the overall U.S. economy. Output, employment, and other important variables, all performed either in line with or better than consensus forecasts, often improving considerably relative to their earlier trends. We conclude that, from low levels, a 100 basis point increase in long-term interest rates is probably too small to ...