Search Results
Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
Journal Article
Texas economy cools as concerns about tariffs, uncertainty persist
The Texas economy appears to be cooling following an upturn during the summer. The TBOS headline indexes of manufacturing production and services revenue weakened in September and October, following a brief late -summer rebound.
Job postings show early signs of AI automation impact
Texas firms are increasingly integrating generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into their business processes. Two-thirds of firms surveyed in the May 2026 Texas Business Outlook Survey reported using AI, up from 40 percent two years prior.
Working Paper
Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?
Structural changes to labor demand can have lasting consequences on the employment and earnings of workers in affected industries and geographies. However, individuals coming of age may avoid similar fates if they internalize salient changes to the returns to education and adjust their human capital investments. This paper studies the effects of exposure to structural labor demand shocks during youth and adolescence on human capital accumulation and later-life earnings. I use student-level administrative data from Texas and a modified difference-in-differences design that compares changes in ...
AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates
Evidence suggests that generative AI (GenAI) has reduced demand for positions in which the new technology can more efficiently complete tasks than humans.