Search Results
Working Paper
Jump risk, time-varying risk premia, and technical trading profits
In this paper we investigate the recently documented trading profits based on technical trading rules in an asset pricing framework that incorporates jump risk and time-varying risk premia. Following Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), we apply popular technical trading rules to the daily S&P 500 index over a long period of time. Trading profits are examined using bootstrap simulation to address distributional anomalies. We estimate a variety of asset pricing models, including the random walk, autoregressive models, a combined jump diffusion model, and a combined model of jump-diffusion ...
Working Paper
Expected stock returns and volatility in a production economy: a theory and some evidence
The sign of the relationship between expected stock market returns and volatility appears to vary over time, a result that seems at odds with basic notions of risk and return. In this paper we construct an economy where production involves the use of both labor and capital as inputs. We show that when capital investment is "sticky," the sign of the relation between stock market risk and return varies in accordance with the supply of labor but requires no time variation in preferences. In particular, we show that for asset market equilibria where firms face an elastic supply of labor, the ...
Working Paper
Emerging debt and equity markets: an exploratory investigation of integration using daily data
In this paper we examine integration between emerging and U.S. debt and equity markets. We first investigate price changes around significant "events," in this case changes in short-term U.S. interest rates brought about by actions of the Federal Reserve. Second, we estimate the predictability of returns using both domestic and U.S. variables. Finally, we test whether a single latent variable can explain these returns. The evidence suggests that the degree of integration varies with security types and the country of origin. However, these differences between security types become less ...
Journal Article
Analyzing risk and return for mortgage-backed securities
Journal Article
Policy essay--new tools for regulators in a high-tech world
Journal Article
The rise of risk management
Risk management is nothing new, despite the increased attention given to the subject over the past decade or two. For well over one hundred years farmers have engaged in risk management, hedging their risks against price fluctuations in commodity markets. Unlike a family farmer, however, a corporation is owned by shareholders, who can, if they so wish, greatly reduce or eliminate the risk of low prices simply by holding a diversified portfolio. ; Why, then, are managers doing for shareholders what shareholders apparently can do for themselves? This article provides a review of the rationales ...
Working Paper
Form invariance in biased sampling problems
Working Paper
Derivatives and corporate risk management: participation and volume decisions in the insurance industry
In this paper we formulate and test a number of hypotheses regarding insurer participation and volume decisions in derivatives markets. Several specific hypotheses are supported by our analysis. We find evidence consistent with the idea that insurers are motivated to use financial derivatives to hedge the costs of financial distress, interest rate, liquidity, and exchange rate risks. We also find some evidence that insurers use these instruments to hedge embedded options and manage their tax bills. We also find evidence of significant economies of scale in the use of derivatives. ...