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Working Paper
Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply
High persistence is a prominent feature of price movements in U.S. housing markets, i.e., house prices grow faster this period if they grew faster last period. This paper provides two additional new insights to the literature on U.S. house price movements. First, there exists a significant time variation in the persistence of house price growth, both at the national and city level. Second, there is considerable heterogeneity in the time-varying persistence across different regions, particularly in areas that were historically less persistent, such as the capital-poor regions in the Midwest ...
Persistence of house-price growth highlights geographic, credit factors
Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.