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Journal Article
The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases
Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a resulting drop in overall U.S. employment, although manufacturing employment increases. Results also indicate a decline in overall real income for the United States of around 0.4%, although this number masks important variation across U.S. states.
Journal Article
Economic History: The Rise and Fall of Company Towns
The rise and fall of Gary — and that of company towns across the country — mirrors the arc of the nation's economy. From the textile mills of the early 1800s to the coal mines of the 20th century to the manufacturing hubs that defined America's industrial prowess, the story of the United States can be told through the company town. It is a tale of abundance and abandonment, boom and bust, plenty and poverty.
Working Paper
What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy
In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff policy since 1870 shows no systematic relation between the state of the cycle and the direction of the tariff changes, as partisan differences on the effects and desirability of tariffs led to opposite policy responses to similar economic conditions. Exploiting this quasi-random nature of tariff variations, we find that a tariff hike raises unemployment (lowers economic activity) and lowers ...
Journal Article
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from pre-World War II periods with tariff rate changes of a similar magnitude. Analysis shows that previous tariff hikes raised unemployment and reduced both economic activity and inflation. Uncertainty may be a factor behind these effects: A large tariff increase raises uncertainty, which can depress overall demand and lead to lower inflation.