Search Results
Conference Paper
Improving monetary policy models
Working Paper
Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
If multivariate dynamic models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that it be possible to provide probability assessments of their results. Bayesian VAR models in the existing literature have not commonly (in fact, not at all as far as we know) been presented with error bands around forecasts or policy projections based on the posterior distribution. In this paper we show that it is possible to introduce prior information in both reduced form and structural VAR models without introducing substantial new computational burdens. With our approach, identified VAR analysis of ...
Journal Article
Inflation and growth - commentary
Conference Paper
Inflation and growth - commentary
Report
When does a central bank’s balance sheet require fiscal support?
Using a simple general equilibrium model, we argue that it would be appropriate for a central bank with a large balance sheet composed of long-duration nominal assets to have access to, and be willing to ask for, support for its balance sheet by the fiscal authority. Otherwise its ability to control inflation may be at risk. This need for balance sheet support?a within-government transaction?is distinct from the need for fiscal backing of inflation policy that arises even in models where the central bank?s balance sheet is merged with that of the rest of the government.
Conference Paper
Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy
As with many important theories, the long run value of Phillips curve theories may lie in the new flames that are emerging from its dying embers.
Working Paper
Calculating and using second order accurate solutions of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models
We describe an algorithm for calculating second order approximations to the solutions to nonlinear stochastic rational expectation models. The paper also explains methods for using such an approximate solution to generate forecasts, simulated time paths for the model, and evaluations of expected welfare differences across different versions of a model. The paper gives conditions for local validity of the approximation that allow for disturbance distributions with unbounded support and allow for non-stationarity of the solution process.