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Journal Article
Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Uncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People?s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recession help shape the actions they take today. Consequently, how households and firms respond to uncertainty has implications for economic activity. In addition, uncertainty matters to policymakers: Monetary policymakers recognize that if uncertainty about future inflation is high, decision-making by households and firms becomes more complicated. In this article, Keith Sill describes how uncertainty can be measured ...
Working Paper
The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility
This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1956 to 2005 and examines its possible sources. Estimates from a state-level pooled cross-section/time-series model indicate that aggregate and state-level factors each account for an important share of the total explained variation in state-level volatility. Specifically, state-level factors have contributed as much as 16 percent, while aggregate factors are found to account for up to 46 percent of the variation. With regard to state-level factors, the share of state total employment in ...
Journal Article
Forecast disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
To enact effective policies and spend resources efficiently, firms, policymakers, and markets need accurate economic forecasts. But even though economists generally work with similar models and data, their projections often range widely. To better understand why, Keith Sill explores what the evidence and theories say about how forecasters form their views.
Working Paper
DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). The authors use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to the state variables of the DSGE model. Predictions for the non-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model- generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, the authors apply their approach to generate and evaluate ...
Working Paper
Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles
This paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major U.S. regions during the 1956-95 period. Cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components. The authors find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, the authors find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the Far West. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy, oil shocks, and TFP: accounting for the decline in U.S. volatility
An equilibrium model is used to assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in U.S. inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary policy played a substantial role in reducing inflation volatility, but a small role in reducing real output volatility. The model attributes much of the decline in real output volatility to smaller TFP shocks. We also investigate the pattern of output and inflation volatility under an optimal monetary policy counterfactual. We find that real output volatility would have been somewhat lower, and inflation ...
Journal Article
Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve
A 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act states that the Fed?s mandate is ?to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.? Moderate long-term interest rates require low and stable inflation. Monetary policymakers use instruments such as a short-term interest rate to guide the economy with the aim of achieving an inflation objective. To help guide their decisions, monetary policymakers benefit from having a reliable theory of how inflation is determined, one that relates the setting of their instrument to the unexpected events ...