Search Results
Working Paper
Expectations and economic fluctuations: an analysis using survey data
Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations, and their interaction with monetary policy, contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy, oil shocks, and TFP: accounting for the decline in U.S. volatility
An equilibrium model is used to assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in U.S. inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary policy played a substantial role in reducing inflation volatility, but a small role in reducing real output volatility. The model attributes much of the decline in real output volatility to smaller TFP shocks. We also investigate the pattern of output and inflation volatility under an optimal monetary policy counterfactual. We find that real output volatility would have been somewhat lower, and inflation ...
Journal Article
The economic benefits and risks of derivative securities
Certain events have raised concern about the risks associated with derivatives trading--witness Orange County, California or Procter & Gamble, both of which lost large sums of money using derivatives. However, the popular discussion often loses track of the benefits derivatives hold for firms, investors, and the economy as a whole. Have derivatives received a bum rap? Keith Sill admits that derivatives have risks, especially to the uninitiated, but they also have a great deal of value for the economy as well
Journal Article
Forecasts, indicators and monetary policy
When setting monetary policy, should policymakers target variables such as commodity prices or interest rate spreads, which are sensitive to the market's expectations of inflation? Or are variables such as money growth, which are tied to the underlying causes of inflation and economic growth, better indicators of the economy's path? Keith Sill considers these questions as he reviews indicators past and present
Journal Article
The macroeconomics of oil shocks
For various reasons, oil-price increases may lead to significant slowdowns in economic growth. Five of the last seven U.S. recessions were preceded by significant increases in the price of oil. In ?The Macroeconomics of Oil Shocks,? Keith Sill examines the effect of changes in oil prices on U.S. economic activity, focusing on how runups in the price of oil can affect output growth and inflation. He also discusses the channels by which oil-price increases might affect the economy and the historical evidence on the relationship between oil prices, economic growth, and inflation.
Journal Article
Restructuring during recessions: a silver lining in the cloud?
Recessions usually mean bad times for many workers and firms: companies close; jobs are lost. However, recessions can present certain opportunities for organizations. For example, restructuring can be less costly during a recession: workers can be retrained and machines upgraded. In turn, these actions position a company to take advantage of the next economic upturn. In this article, Keith Sill discusses the "creative destruction" that takes place during recessions and outlines some of the policy implications of restructuring
Journal Article
Widening the wage gap: the skill premium and technology
Our final article looks at the difference in wages between high-skill workers (such as those who might work in biotech) and low-skill workers. This skill premium has increased dramatically over the past 30 years. Although economists are still debating the causes of this increase, it seems likely that skill-biased technical change has played a large role. As companies have invested in new technologies, demand for workers who can use them has surged. In "Widening the Wage Gap: The Skill Premium and Technology," Keith Sill reviews the literature and tells us why some theories fall flat and ...
Journal Article
The gains from international risk-sharing
The author examines the data on just how much risk-sharing currently takes place in both developed and developing countries. He also considers the question of whether significant unexploited gains from risk-sharing exist across borders.
Journal Article
The evolution of the world income distribution
There is tremendous disparity in the levels of individuals? incomes across countries. However, this disparity in per capita income has not always existed. In ?The Evolution of the World Income Distribution,? Keith Sill investigates some facts about the evolution of per capita income across countries and reviews a simple model that broadly captures the observed evolution of the world income distribution since 1800. He then discusses what predictions can be made about future cross-country distributions of income and some policy prescriptions that follow from our understanding of the past and ...
Journal Article
Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve
A 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act states that the Fed?s mandate is ?to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.? Moderate long-term interest rates require low and stable inflation. Monetary policymakers use instruments such as a short-term interest rate to guide the economy with the aim of achieving an inflation objective. To help guide their decisions, monetary policymakers benefit from having a reliable theory of how inflation is determined, one that relates the setting of their instrument to the unexpected events ...