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Author:Sichel, Daniel E. 

Working Paper
Cyclical patterns in the variance of economic activity

Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 161

Working Paper
Intangible capital and economic growth

Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2006-24

Discussion Paper
Own-Account IT Equipment Investment

This note considers a puzzle: why has information technology (IT) equipment investment in the National income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) been so weak since 2007 at the same time that financial reports indicate massive increases in capital expenditures by IT service companies?
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-10-04-2

Working Paper
Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 128

Working Paper
Business cycle duration dependence: a parametric approach

Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 98

Working Paper
A primer on the macroeconomic implications of population aging

The composition of the U.S. population will change significantly in coming decades as the decline in fertility rates following the baby boom, coupled with increasing longevity, leads to an older population. This demographic shift will likely have a dramatic effect on the long-run prospects for living standards. Moreover, as has been widely discussed in the media and by policymakers, population aging also has significant implications for social programs for the elderly, such as Social Security and Medicare. In this paper, we discuss the consequences of population aging from a macroeconomic ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-01

Working Paper
Getting Smart About Phones : New Price Indexes and the Allocation of Spending Between Devices and Services Plans in Personal Consumption Expenditures

This paper addresses two measurement issues for mobile phones. First, we develop a new mobile phone price index using hedonic quality-adjusted prices for smartphones and a matched-model index for feature phones. Our index falls at an average annual rate of 17 percent during 2010-2018, close to the rate of decline in the price index used in the GDP Accounts. Given relatively flat average prices over this period, our index points to substantial quality improvement. Second, we propose a methodology to disentangle purchases of phones and wireless services when they are bundled together as part of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-012

Discussion Paper
International evidence on business cycle duration dependence

We provide an investigation of duration dependence in prewar business expansions, contractions, and whole cycles for France, Germany, and Great Britain. Our results, obtained using both nonparametric and parametric procedures, generally indicate the presence of positive duration dependence in expansions and whole cycles but not in contractions. Our results corroborate those of our earlier studies of the United States.
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 31

Working Paper
Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence

Working Papers , Paper 91-11

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