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Working Paper
Breathing room for beta
This paper argues that a test of beta insignificance, commonly used in empirical studies of the CAPM, predisposes studies toward rejecting the CAPM. Under the null hypothesis of these tests, the CAPM is false. Consequently, insufficient evidence to reject the null is taken as sufficient evidence to reject the CAPM. Simulations suggest that this framework typically leads to false rejection rates of more than 1/2. An alternative test, with a null hypothesis consistent with the CAPM, is proposed. Based on statistics from published studies, the proposed test does not reject the CAPM.
Journal Article
The P/E ratio and stock market performance
The U.S, stock market entered 2000 with five consecutive years of exceptional gains. The S&P 500 index gained more than 18 percent each of these five years, and its value tripled since 1995.> Concern has arisen recently that the stock market may be headed for a downturn because firms' share prices have become very high relative to their earnings. Analysts who hold this view point out that, in the past, high price-earnings ratios have usually been followed by slow growth in stock prices. Other analysts argue that history is no longer a true guide because fundamental changes in the economy have ...
Journal Article
Features and risks of Treasury Inflation Protection Securities
In 1997, the U.S. Treasury began the quarterly issuance of inflation indexed bonds, called Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS). So far, the Treasury has issued both 5-year and 10-year indexed bonds and will begin to issue 30-year indexed bonds and inflation indexed savings bonds in 1998. TIPS differ from conventional Treasury bonds in both their payment flows and risks. With virtually no inflation risk, they are the safest assets currently available in the U.S. market. Combined with conventional Treasury bonds, they allow investors to separate inflation risk from real interest ...
Working Paper
Market timing strategies that worked
In this paper, we present a few simple market-timing strategies that appear to outperform the "buy-and-hold" strategy, with real-time data from 1970 to 2000. Our focus is on spreads between the E/P ratio of the S&P 500 index and interest rates. Extremely low spreads, as compared to their historical ranges, appear to predict higher frequencies of subsequent market downturns in monthly data. We construct "horse races" between switching strategies based on extremely low spreads and the market index. Switching strategies call for investing in the stock market index unless spreads are lower ...
Journal Article
Settlement risk in large-value payments systems
The phenomenal growth of financial market and trading activities worldwide has led to tremendous growth in large-value payments systems. Large-value payments systems are the electronic banks used to transfer large payments among themselves. Payment orders processed in such systems in the United States, for example, are typically well above $1 million. ; The tremendous growth of payments system use throughout the world has increased both the possibility of settlement failures and the potential impact of such failures. In 1996, the average turnover in a single day exceeded the combined capital ...
Journal Article
How long is a long-term investment?
Conventional wisdom tells us that stocks tend to outperform government bonds in the long term. That is, if stocks are held long enough, they are usually better investments because their total return is likely to be higher than the return on bonds. While this view may be correct in principle, in practice a crucial question remains: How long is long enough? The answer is important to every investor, not just the wealthy few. With employers relying increasingly on defined-contribution retirement plans, employees must make their own saving and investment decisions. ; Shen reviews historical ...
Working Paper
Market makers' supply and pricing of financial market liquidity
This study models the bid-ask spread in financial markets as a function of asset price variability and order flow. The market-maker is characterized as passively accepting orders to buy and to sell a security at the market's prevailing price (plus or minus half the bid-ask spread). The bid-ask spread adjusts to cover market-makers' average costs. The bid-ask spread then varies positively with: the security's price volatility, the volatility of order flow, and the absolute value of the market-maker's net inventory position. Each of these variables increases average cost and hence is priced in ...
Journal Article
Can TIPS help identify long-term inflation expectations?
Investors and policymakers have long hoped that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) would provide an accurate measure of long-term market inflation expectations. To make informed decisions and to ensure that inflation does not erode the purchasing power of their assets, investors need to assess the rate of inflation expected by other market participants. Having an accurate measure of market inflation expectations can also help policymakers assess their effectiveness in controlling long-term inflation, as well as their credibility among market participants.> Until recently, however, ...
Journal Article
Developing a liquid market for inflation-indexed government securities: lessons from earlier experiences
After a slow start in the 1980s, inflation-indexed government securities have gradually become more common in developed countries. A number of potential benefits arise with a government conducting part of its borrowing through inflation-indexed securities. Chief among them are better risk sharing for the economy, reduced government borrowing costs, less incentive for a deeply indebted government to inflate away its debt, and a new source of information about investors? inflation expectations. Many developed countries in coming decades will face the need to borrow more to finance the ...
Journal Article
Why has the nonfinancial commercial paper market shrunk recently?
The total volume of nonfinancial commercial paper outstanding peaked in the fall of 2000 and has declined rapidly ever since. By September 2002, the market had shrunk more than 50 percent. Relative to historical patterns, both the magnitude and the timing of the decline are unusual. The decline is the largest on record, and the market started to shrink before the recent recession began. In the past, the volume of commercial paper outstanding tended to increase during the early stages of recessions. ; Commercial paper is an important source of external funding for corporate borrowers and has ...