Journal Article
District Overview: As in the Nation, New Jobs in the District Are Concentrated in Low-Paying Industries
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2015-07)
The Eighth District added about 150,000 jobs from 2010 to 2013, almost 75 percent of them in low-paying industries. Such jobs are growing at a faster rate than those in high-paying industries, the opposite of what is happening on the national level.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Residual seasonality in gross domestic product can make it difficult for policymakers to know whether weak first-quarter GDP growth is due to an actual downturn or a reported number that is understated.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Comparing Measures of Potential Output
Owyang, Michael T.; Guisinger, Amy Y.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
One of the goals of stabilization policy is to reduce the output gap?the difference between potential and actual output?during downturns. Potential output, however, is an unobserved variable whose definition can vary. For example, some view potential output as the level of output that can be produced when employment is at the natural rate. Others use trend measures of output to measure potential. We survey some of these measures using both full-sample data (all of the data that would be available through June 2017) and real-time data (the actual data that would have been available at ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 4 , Pages 297-316

Journal Article
How Important Are Production Networks to the U.S. Economy?
Hong, Sungki; Sun, Qiuhan; Shell, Hannah (2018)
As manufacturing grows more sophisticated, industries become more interconnected through production networks.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Moving In, Moving Out: The Migration Pattern of the Eighth District
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019)
Education and income differed between those leaving and those entering the District states from 2013-2017.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-20)
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Factors Behind the Decline in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019-04-19)
Longer lives and fewer babies have contributed to a lower natural rate of interest.
Economic Synopses , Issue 11

Journal Article
Labor Market Polarization: How Does the District Compare with the Nation?
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2017)
See why jobs in the District, nation are increasingly becoming high-skill or low-skill. The decline of middle-skill jobs may be widening income inequality.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 2

Journal Article
District Overview: Income Inequality Is Growing in the District, but Not as Fast as in the Nation
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2015-01)
Income inequality has increased in the St. Louis Fed's District over the past 30 years, although at a slower pace than in the nation as a whole. In both areas, the inequality is increasing primarily between the top-income earners and the middle-income earners.
The Regional Economist , Issue Jan

Journal Article
China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah (2017)
Find out why accurate reporting by China on its economy is important and how doubting outsiders are stepping in with their own measurements.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 2