Journal Article
District Overview: As in the Nation, New Jobs in the District Are Concentrated in Low-Paying Industries
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2015-07)
The Eighth District added about 150,000 jobs from 2010 to 2013, almost 75 percent of them in low-paying industries. Such jobs are growing at a faster rate than those in high-paying industries, the opposite of what is happening on the national level.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Residual seasonality in gross domestic product can make it difficult for policymakers to know whether weak first-quarter GDP growth is due to an actual downturn or a reported number that is understated.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Comparing Measures of Potential Output
Owyang, Michael T.; Guisinger, Amy Y.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
One of the goals of stabilization policy is to reduce the output gap?the difference between potential and actual output?during downturns. Potential output, however, is an unobserved variable whose definition can vary. For example, some view potential output as the level of output that can be produced when employment is at the natural rate. Others use trend measures of output to measure potential. We survey some of these measures using both full-sample data (all of the data that would be available through June 2017) and real-time data (the actual data that would have been available at ...
Review , Volume 100 , Issue 4 , Pages 297-316

Journal Article
How Important Are Production Networks to the U.S. Economy?
Hong, Sungki; Sun, Qiuhan; Shell, Hannah (2018)
As manufacturing grows more sophisticated, industries become more interconnected through production networks.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Moving In, Moving Out: The Migration Pattern of the Eighth District
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019)
Education and income differed between those leaving and those entering the District states from 2013-2017.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-20)
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Measuring Potential Output
Owyang, Michael T.; Guisinger, Amy Y.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
So many ways to measure potential output, so little consensus?But different measurements don?t necessarily alter central bank policy decisions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Measuring Trends in Income Inequality
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah (2016-04)
Before there is discussion on what can and should be done about income inequality, interested parties should understand the different methods that can be used to measure the gap. Knowing when the gap has been particularly wide or narrow over the past 50 or so years would also be helpful.
The Regional Economist , Issue April

Journal Article
The Impact of Automation on Inequality
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Occupations with large employment and low income have a higher automation probability.
Economic Synopses , Issue 29 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
A Regional Look at U.S. International Trade
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2016)
Economic activity at the state level varies greatly across U.S. regions, with different states specializing in the production of particular goods and services. This heterogeneity in activity informs the geographic distribution of U.S. imports and exports. Using U.S. Census Bureau foreign trade statistics, the authors examine the distribution of U.S. international trade at the state level, controlling for commodities and major trading partners. They find that trade activity varies greatly from state to state and identify two factors affecting this pattern?proximity to a trading partner and ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 1 , Pages 17-39