Journal Article
60% of District's Jobs Could Face Automation in the Next 20 Years
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Jobs in the St. Louis Fed?s District face a higher risk of automation than do jobs nation-wide. Smaller MSAs in the District will face bigger impact.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 3

Working Paper
The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel (2025-10-24)
The slow recovery of the labor market in the aftermath of the Great Recession highlighted mismatch, or the misallocation of workers across space or across industries. We consider the historical evolution of regional mismatch. We construct MSA-level unemployment rates and vacancy data using techniques similar to Barnichon (2010) and a new dataset of online help wanted ads by MSA. We estimate regional Beveridge curves, identifying the slopes by restricting them to be equal across locations with similar labor market characteristics. We find that the 51 U.S. cities in our sample have four ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-037

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Neely, Michelle Clark; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; Arias, Maria A.; Cooke, Diana A.; McCrory, Peter B. (2015-01)
Burgundy Books , Issue 1Q

Journal Article
Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
Residual seasonality in gross domestic product can make it difficult for policymakers to know whether weak first-quarter GDP growth is due to an actual downturn or a reported number that is understated.
The Regional Economist , Volume 26 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector
Owyang, Michael T.; Guisinger, Amy Y.; Shell, Hannah (2019)
Fed forecasts have generally been more accurate than private forecasts, but the reason isn?t clear.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

Journal Article
The Global Decline of the Natural Rate of Interest and Implications for Monetary Policy
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019-02-01)
A low natural rate of interest in normal times may call for unconventional policy in recessions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 4

Journal Article
Moving In, Moving Out: The Migration Pattern of the Eighth District
Hong, Sungki; Shell, Hannah (2019)
Education and income differed between those leaving and those entering the District states from 2013-2017.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone
Ricketts, Lowell R.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Neely, Michelle Clark; Shell, Hannah; Eubanks, Daniel; Arias, Maria A.; Cooke, Diana A.; McCrory, Peter B. (2015-04)
Burgundy Books , Issue 2Q

Journal Article
Measuring Potential Output
Owyang, Michael T.; Guisinger, Amy Y.; Shell, Hannah (2018)
So many ways to measure potential output, so little consensus?But different measurements don?t necessarily alter central bank policy decisions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
The Recent Evolution of U.S. Local Labor Markets
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Shell, Hannah (2016)
Counties with severe declines in housing net worth during the 2007-09 recession experienced larger declines in employment.
Economic Synopses , Issue 15 , Pages 1-3