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Discussion Paper
Implementing Monetary Policy in an "Ample-Reserves" Regime: Maintaining an Ample Quantity of Reserves (Note 2 of 3)
In this second note, we describe some important influences on the supply of and demand for reserves and how the Fed will need to account for these influences in maintaining an ample quantity of reserves over the long run. These considerations are most relevant in normal times, not in periods in which there are severe strains in financial markets or weakness in economic activity that necessitate aggressive policy actions by the Fed that substantially increase reserves.
Working Paper
A Tale of Demand and Supply for Central Bank Reserves
In an ample-reserves framework, administered rates anchor money markets but suppress information from unsecured interbank trading. We recover that information by isolating the small interbank segment of the federal funds market. Using high-frequency bank-level data, we employ deposit shocks as an instrument for bank borrowing demand. Our analysis reveals that non-bank lenders, such as Federal Home Loan Banks, supply funds elastically, whereas bank lenders exhibit price inelasticity, which intensifies as their reserve balances decline, particularly for bankers’ banks. This interbank segment ...
Discussion Paper
Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) Operations and Uncertainty in the Repo Market
In this note, we analyze the effects of the ON RRP operations on daily repo rate uncertainty--based on revisions to the repo rate forecast--and intraday repo rate volatility.
Working Paper
What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?
This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of aggregated and industry-level stock volatility, and bond market volatility from daily returns. We model log financial volatility as composed of a long-run component that is common across all series, and a short-run component. If volatility has components, volatility proxies are characterized by large measurement error, which veils analysis of their fundamental information and relationship with the economy. We find that there are ...
Working Paper
The Fed’s “Ample-Reserves” Approach to Implementing Monetary Policy
We describe the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) approach to implementing monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime. We use a stylized model to explain the factors the Fed considers and the tools it uses to ensure interest rate control when the quantity of reserves is ample. Then, we take a close look at the Fed’s experience operating in this regime in the post-crisis period, both as it has raised and lowered its policy rate. Looking ahead, we highlight some considerations relevant for maintaining a level of reserves consistent with the efficient and effective implementation of ...