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Working Paper
Is \"Fintech\" Good for Small Business Borrowers? Impacts on Firm Growth and Customer Satisfaction
?Fintech? is a rapidly expanding segment of the financial market that is receiving much attention from investors and increasing regulatory scrutiny. While the attention is rising, very little is known about the performance of these lending sources on the outcomes of small businesses that make use of them. The Federal Reserve?s 2015 Small Business Credit Survey has data on the experiences of business owners with this new funding source and can provide some useful insights into this expanding sector, if compositional differences among the businesses that get bank loans, those that get fintech ...
Report
The effects of inflation on wage adjustments in firm-level data: grease or sand?
This paper studies the effects of inflation on wage changes made by firms in a unique thirty-seven-year panel of occupations and employers drawn from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Community Salary Survey (CSS). Our analysis first identifies two relative prices embedded in wage changes and, second, draws inferences about the costs and benefits of inflation from the adjustments in these relative prices. Typically, firms manage employer-wide wage adjustments (controlling for occupational wage changes) separately from their interoccupational wage changes (controlling for employer wage ...
Journal Article
Will increasing the minimum wage help the poor?
Minimum wages help some families to escape poverty, but employment losses associated with raising the minimum also appear to cause some families to fall into poverty. The authors' estimates suggest that on balance, the second of these effects outweighs the first; therefore, the net result of raising the minimum wage is an increase in the proportion of poor families.
Journal Article
Looking back at slow employment growth
An analysis of slower-than-normal employment growth in the post-1991 economic recovery, examining trends at both the state and national level and finding a widespread weakness in the rate of job addition in growing industries, rather than an unusually high job deletion rate in contracting industries.
Journal Article
Economic policy uncertainty and small business expansion
Is uncertainty causing small business owners to behave in ways that are hindering the recovery? That question is at the center of an intense public debate. Though reasonable arguments have been presented on both sides, there is not much empirical evidence to draw on. To contribute some to the discussion, we investigated the statistical association between data on small business plans to hire and make capital expenditures and a measure of policy uncertainty. Our analysis suggests that uncertainty is adversely affecting small business owners? expansion plans.
Journal Article
Firms' wage adjustments: a break from the past
Journal Article
Will electricity deregulation push inflation lower?
Deregulation of electricity generation will offer consumers many advantages, including dramatically lower energy costs. From a macroeconomic viewpoint, electricity purchases are interesting because they are a major component of consumers? budgets (and thus of the CPI) and a large factor of production for many companies. This raises the possibility that electricity deregulation could create a substantial shock to the overall price trend, comparable to other recent energy shocks. The benefits to consumers and producers identified in this article strongly support legislative efforts to increase ...
Journal Article
Productivity gains during business cycles: what's normal?
Labor productivity growth is generally acknowledged to be procyclical. The author reviews the leading explanations for this, then uses two approaches to compare the time pattern of productivity gains over the business cycle. One approach describes the pattern in terms of the number of quarters of growth since the cycle's trough; the other uses knowledge about the ends of past recoveries to describe the typical pattern of productivity gains as a cycle ages.
Report
Identifying inflation's grease and sand effects in the labor market
Inflation has been accused of causing distortionary prices and wage fluctuations (sand) as well as lauded for facilitating adjustments to shocks when wages are rigid downwards (grease). This paper investigates whether these two effects can be distinguished from each other in a labor market by the following identification strategy: inflation-induced deviations among employer's mean wage-changes represent unintended intramarket distortions (sand), while inflation-induced, inter-occupational wage-changes reflect intended alignments with intermarket forces (grease). Using a unique 40-year panel ...
Working Paper
Sectoral wage convergence: a nonparametric distributional analysis
A nonparametric analysis of the similarity between goods and services wage densities, applying kernel density estimates and an overlap statistic to U.S. weekly full-time wages from 1969 to 1993.