Working Paper
Savings rates and output variability in industrial countries
Schinasi, Garry J.; Gagnon, Joseph E. (1989)
The economics literature offers competing hypotheses about the relationship between savings rates and output variability. This paper examines data for eight industrial countries to determine if there is a discernible pattern between savings rates and cyclical volatility of output. We find a striking coincidence of high gross savings rates and high output variability when real GDP gaps are estimated from a constant growth trend. But there is also strong evidence that this coincidence is an artifact. The major conclusion is that there is not a robust relationship between average gross savings ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 363

Working Paper
International comparisons of fiscal policy: the OECD and the IMF measures of fiscal impulse
Schinasi, Garry J. (1986)
Both the OECD and the IMF periodically estimate and publish measures of fiscal impulse to gauge the extent to which fiscal policy in the major industrial countries has become more or less expansive over time. This paper compares these measures analytically and numerically. The paper shows that the OECD and IMF measures of fiscal impulse differ in at least four fundamental ways: (1) the OECD includes fiscal drag under the presumption that it is part of the "structure" of fiscal policy, while the IMF excludes it from its adjusted measure of the budget balance; (2) the OECD and the IMF both ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 274

Working Paper
Should fixed coefficients be reestimated every period for extrapolation?
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Schinasi, Garry J. (1986)
This paper demonstrates that forecast accuracy is not necessarily improved when fixed coefficient models are sequentially reestimated, and used for prediction, after updating the database with the latest observation(s). This is at variance with the now popular method (see Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1985)) of sequentially reestimating fixed coefficient models for prediction as new data "rolls" in. It is argued that although "rolling" may minimize the variance of predictions for some classes of estimators, "rolling" does not necessarily yield accurate predictions (i.e., predictions that are ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 287

Discussion Paper
The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Schinasi, Garry J. (1987)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 212

Discussion Paper
Price, inventory dynamics of a Phelps-Winter type firm
Schinasi, Garry J.; Jha, Raghbendra (1981)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 159

Working Paper
The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change
Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Schinasi, Garry J. (1987)
This study examines the out-of-sample forecasting performance of models of exchange rate determination without imposing the restriction that coefficients are fixed over time. Both fixed and variable coefficient versions of conventional structural models are considered, with and without a lagged dependent variable. While our results on fixed coefficient models support most of the Meese and Rogoff conclusions, we find that when coefficients are allowed to change, an important subset of conventional models of the dollar-pound, the dollar-deutsche mark, and the dollar-yen exchange rates can ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 301

Working Paper
European integration, exchange rate management, and monetary reform: a review of the major issues
Schinasi, Garry J. (1989)
Since the adoption of the Single European Act in 1986, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the European Monetary System as presently structured to ensure an efficient and effective monetary system for the single European market. The further adoption by the European Council (June 1989) of the Report on Economic and Monetary Union (the Delors report) moves the European Community towards even greater monetary integration. ; Policy discussions have focussed on perceived problems with the current institutional and political structure of the European Monetary System and its exchange ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 364

Discussion Paper
The cost of adjustment and the microfoundations of the Kaldor nonlinear investment function
Schinasi, Garry J. (1980)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 138

Working Paper
Taxation of capital gains on foreign exchange transactions and the non- neutrality of changes in anticipated inflation
Schinasi, Garry J. (1986)
In a two-country world with perfect capital markets and no taxes, the existence of purchasing power parity is fully consistent with interest party and the equalization of real interest rates across countries. In such a world, changes in anticipated inflation in either country will not alter the world equilibrium real interest rate. If asset returns are taxed, the existence of taxes may drive a wedge between real after-tax interest rates, and changes in anticipated inflation may create arbitrage opportunities, thereby creating capital flows between countries and thereby altering equilibrium ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 280

Discussion Paper
The microfoundations of aggregate supply: wage, price, unemployment dynamics and the natural rate hypothesis
Schinasi, Garry J.; Jha, Raghbendra (1980)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 139