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Author:Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. 

Briefing
Why Does the Fed Study Regional Economics?

All of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks study the economies of their regions, but how is this information used? Regional data historically haven't swayed monetary policy decisions, but they provide policymakers and researchers with timely information about economic conditions and with context for interpreting data obtained from other sources.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue January , Pages 1-6

Briefing
What Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Tell Us

Throughout this period of high inflation, people have wondered when inflation will return to the FOMC's longer-run target of 2 percent. Many models and surveys on inflation expectations exist to help answer this question. In this Economic Brief, we explore the accuracy of these measures of inflation expectations and what information can be obtained from them. While we find these popular sources of inflation are historically inaccurate, they can still gather valuable information, such as people's confidence in the ability of the Fed to get inflation back to target.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 03

Journal Article
On the identification of structural vector autoregressions

Economic Quarterly , Issue Sum , Pages 45-68

Working Paper
Staggered prices and inventories: production smoothing reconsidered

Working Paper , Paper 98-08

Briefing
Predicting PCE Using the Richmond Fed Price Measure

The Richmond Fed survey measure of price changes comes out a month earlier than the PCE measure of inflation. Because the Richmond Fed price measure is known earlier, we can use the contemporaneous measure to provide an estimate of inflation.An empirical model with contemporaneous and past inflation changes — as measured by the Richmond Fed's price survey — notably reduces the out-of-sample forecast error obtained from a benchmark random walk model of inflation.Using the Richmond Fed price survey data prior to the release of September PCE, we forecast September PCE inflation to move from ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 44

Journal Article
From Stylized to Quantitative Spatial Models of Cities

This paper describes the progression from a standard monocentric model of a city to its analog in the quantitative spatial framework recently reviewed by Redding and Rossi-Hansberg (forthcoming). In this progression, we preserve the basics of preferences, technology, and endowments across models. The monocentric model allows for many of a city's characteristics to be endogenous, including size, population, wages, and commercial and residential land rents, but it is also highly stylized. In contrast, quantitative spatial models impose far fewer restrictions in the way that these variables ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 169-196

Journal Article
Accommodating rising population in rural areas : the case of Loudoun County, Virginia

Economic Quarterly , Volume 90 , Issue Win , Pages 33-50

Journal Article
An empirical investigation of fluctuations in manufacturing sales and inventory within a sticky-price framework

Economic Quarterly , Issue Sum , Pages 61-84

Working Paper
An anatomy of u.s. Personal bankruptcy under chapter 13

We build a structural model of Chapter 13 bankruptcy that captures salient features of personal bankruptcy under Chapter 13. We estimate our model using a novel data set we construct from bankruptcy court dockets recorded in Delaware between 2001 and 2002. Our estimation results highlight the importance of debtor?s choice of repayment plan length on Chapter 13 outcomes under the restrictions imposed by the bankruptcy law. We use the estimated model to conduct policy experiments to evaluate the impact of more stringent provisions of Chapter 13 that impose additional restrictions on the length ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-33

Journal Article
Characterizing the Unusual Path of U.S. Output During and After the Great Recession

In this article, we examine the extent to which U.S. per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been uncharacteristically slow in the recovery from the 2007--09 recession and investigate whether this tepid growth might be a short- or longer-term phenomenon. We first examine several conventional univariate time series representations of per capita GDP and use these to assess the most recent recession and recovery in relation to its previous behavior over the U.S. postwar period. We then present a decomposition of per capita GDP into three components---each of which tends to fluctuate ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 3Q , Pages 163-192

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