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Volatility and liquidity in futures markets
Locke, Peter; Sarkar, Asani (1996)
We study the provision of liquidity in futures markets as price volatility changes. For both active and inactive contracts, customer trading costs do not increase with volatility. However, for three of the four contracts studied, the nature of liquidity supply changes with volatility. Specifically, for relatively inactive contracts, customers as a group trade more with each other (and less with market makers) on higher volatility days. By contrast, for the most active contract, trading between customers and market makers increases with volatility. We also find that market makers' income per ...
Research Paper , Paper 9612

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Macro news, risk-free rates, and the intermediary: customer orders for thirty-year Treasury futures
Menkveld, Albert J.; Sarkar, Asani; Van der Wel, Michel (2007)
Customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and non-equity markets. We examine macro news events in the thirty-year Treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to risk-free rates. We remove the positive feedback trading effect and establish that, in the fifteen minutes subsequent to the news, intermediaries rely on customer orders to determine a substantial part of the announcement?s effect on risk-free rates?about one-third relative to the instantaneous effect. Intermediaries appear to benefit from privately observing informed customers, since ...
Staff Reports , Paper 307

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Time-varying consumption correlation and the dynamics of the equity premium: evidence from the G-7 countries
Zhang, Lingjia; Sarkar, Asani (2004)
We examine the implications of time variation in the correlation between the equity premium and nondurable consumption growth for equity return dynamics in G-7 countries. Using a VAR-GARCH (1,1) model, we find that the correlation increases with recession indicators such as above-average unemployment growth and with proxies for stock market wealth. The combined effect is that the correlation increases during a recession. We find that the effect of a countercyclical correlation is that the equity premium, Sharpe ratio, and risk aversion are also generally countercyclical. These findings ...
Staff Reports , Paper 181

Discussion Paper
Counterparty and Collateral Policies of Central Bank Lending Facilities
Sarkar, Asani; Lee, Helene (2017-08-16)
In a previous post, we compared the Federal Reserve’s discount window with the standing lending facilities (SLFs) at the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). We showed that the Fed’s discount window was less integrated with monetary policy than the SLFs of the other central banks. In this post, we observe that the counterparty and collateral policies of the Fed’s discount window are similarly less integrated with the practices involved in monetary policy operations, in comparison with the other central banks.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170816

Discussion Paper
How Do Large Banks Manage Their Cash?
Sarkar, Asani; Levine, Jeffrey (2019-07-17)
As the aggregate supply of reserves shrinks and large banks implement liquidity regulations, they may follow a variety of liquidity management strategies depending on their business models and the interest rate differences between alternative liquid instruments. In this post, the authors provide new evidence on how large banks have managed their cash?the largest component of reserves?on a daily basis since the implementation of liquidity regulations.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190717

Report
Estimating the adverse selection and fixed costs of trading in markets with multiple informed traders
Sarkar, Asani; Wu, Lifan; Chakravarty, Sugato (1998)
We investigate, both theoretically and empirically, the relation between the adverse selection and fixed costs of trading and the number of informed traders in a financial asset. As a proxy for informed traders, we use dual traders -- i.e., futures floor traders who execute trades both for their own and customers' accounts on the same day. Our theoretical model shows that dual traders optimally mimic the size and direction of their informed customers' trades. Further, the adverse selection (fixed) costs of trading: (1) decrease (increase) with the number of dual traders m, if dual traders are ...
Research Paper , Paper 9814

Discussion Paper
Creditor Recovery in Lehman’s Bankruptcy
Sarkar, Asani; Denison, Erin; Fleming, Michael J. (2019-01-14)
Expectations of creditor recovery were low when the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy process started. On the day the firm filed for bankruptcy in September 2008, the average price of Lehman’s senior bonds implied a recovery rate of about 30 percent for senior creditors. A month later the bond price was implying a recovery rate of 9 percent, consistent with results from Lehman’s CDS auction. Two and a half years later, Lehman’s estate estimated that the recovery rate for holding company creditors would be just 16 percent. So, ten years after the filing, how much did creditors actually recover?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190114a

Discussion Paper
The Growth of Murky Finance
Sarkar, Asani; Hou, David; Antill, Samuel (2014-03-27)
Building upon previous posts in this series that discussed individual banks, we examine the historical growth of the entire financial sector, relative to the rest of the economy. This sector’s historically large share of the economy today (see chart below) and its role in disrupting the functioning of the real economy during the recent financial crisis have led to questions about the social value of costly financial services. While new regulations such as the Dodd-Frank Act impose restrictions on financial activities and increase their costs, especially those of large firms, our paper ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140327

Report
COVID Response: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility
Goyal, Ankur; Sarkar, Asani; Park, Woojung; Caviness, Elizabeth (2020-09-01)
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the asset-backed securities (ABS) market, resulting in higher spreads on ABS and briefly halting the issuance of some ABS. On March 23, 2020, the Federal Reserve established the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to support the flow of credit to consumers and businesses by re-enabling the issuance of ABS. In this paper, we describe how TALF works, how much it was used, and its effect on the issuance and spreads of TALF-eligible securities relative to those of TALF-ineligible securities. We find that both the introduction of TALF and its ...
Staff Reports , Paper 979

Discussion Paper
Is Stigma Attached to the European Central Bank's Marginal Lending Facility?
Sarkar, Asani; Lee, Helene (2018-04-16)
The European Central Bank (ECB)’s marginal lending facility has been used by banks to borrow funds both in normal times and during the crisis that started in 2007. In this post, we argue that how a central bank communicates the purpose of a facility is important in determining how users of the facility are perceived. In particular, the ECB never refers to the marginal lending facility as a back-up source of funds. The ECB’s neutral approach may be a key factor in explaining why financial institutions are less reluctant to use the marginal lending facility than the Fed’s discount window.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180416

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