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Author:Sargent, Thomas J. 

Report
\\"Tobin's Q\\" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium

Staff Report , Paper 40

Working Paper
Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S.

For a VAR with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities, the authors present posterior densities for several objects that are of interest for designing and evaluating monetary policy. These include measures of inflation persistence, the natural rate of unemployment, a core rate of inflation, and "activism coefficients" for monetary policy rules. Their posteriors imply substantial variation of all of these objects for post WWII U.S. data. After adjusting for changes in volatility, persistence of inflation increases during the 1970s then falls in the 1980s and 1990s. Innovation ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-25

Journal Article
Estimating vector autoregressions using methods not based on explicit economic theories

Quarterly Review , Volume 3 , Issue Sum

Journal Article
Rational expectations and the reconstruction of macroeconomics

Quarterly Review , Volume 4 , Issue Sum

Working Paper
Identification and estimation of a model of hyperinflation with a continuum of \"sunspot\" equilibrium

This paper constructs a model with two structural equations: the Government budget constraint and a linear version of Cagan?s portfolio balance equation. The model contains a continuum of equilibria with ?sunspot equilibria.? Closed forms for the solutions are found. Even though there is a continuum of equilibria, the model is overidentified econometrically, so that the model restricts time series data on price levels and currency stocks. We describe how the free parameters of the model can be estimated, including some parameters that serve to index particular members of the continuum of ...
Working Papers , Paper 280

Working Paper
Interest rates and prices in the long run: a study of the Gibson paradox

Working Papers , Paper 75

Journal Article
Interpreting the Reagan deficits

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 5-12

Working Paper
Projected U.S. demographics and social security

Without policy reforms, the aging of the U.S. population is likely to increase the burden of the currently unfunded social security and medicare systems. In this paper we build an applied general equilibrium model and incorporate the population projections made by the Social Security Administration (SSA) to evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare implications of alternative fiscal responses to the retirement of the baby- boomers. Our calculation suggest that it will be costly to maintain the benefits at the levels now promised because the increases in distortionary taxes required to finance ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-98-14

Working Paper
Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of Poincaré and Thatcher

Working Papers , Paper 1

Conference Paper
Recursive linear models of dynamic economies

Proceedings , Issue Mar

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