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Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies
U.S. 30-Year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
Commodity Financing Markets Shaken by Russian Invasion; Monitoring for U.S. Financial Stress
While volatility in commodity markets is not unusual, rapid and correlated price increases across many different types of commodities at once is much rarer.
Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.