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Working Paper
The Local Impact of Containerization
We investigate how containerization impacts local economic activity. Containerization is premised on a simple insight: packaging goods for waterborne trade into a standardized container makes them dramatically cheaper to move. We use a novel cost-shifter instrument -- port depth pre-containerization -- to contend with the non-random adoption of containerization by ports. Container ships sit much deeper in the water than their predecessors, making initially deep ports cheaper to containerize. Consistent with New Economic Geography models, we find that counties near container ports grow an ...
Discussion Paper
History of the Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases
In this note, we describe the history of the Federal Reserve Board statistical publications presented in FEDS Paper 2016-016.
Discussion Paper
Inflation Expectations in the Recovery from the Great Depression
In this note, we draw on our recent research on the role of inflation expectations in the recovery from the Great Depression of the 1930s (Jalil and Rua, 2016a and 2016b) to provide insights into the actions that can successfully shift inflation expectations and stimulate economic recovery.
Working Paper
Diffusion of Containerization
This paper uses a newly constructed, comprehensive dataset to investigate the diffusion of containerization. The data show that country adoption is exceptionally fast while firm usage increases more slowly. To guide my empirical investigation, I build a multi-country trade model with endogenous adoption of a new transportation technology that is consistent with these facts. I then test empirically the predictions of the model and find that: (1) usage of containerization increases with firms' fixed costs and the size and average income of the container network; and (2) adoption depends on ...
Discussion Paper
Bottlenecks, Shortages, and Soaring Prices in the U.S. Economy
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, sweeping production constraints, combined with surging demand in some industries, have led to shortages, severe congestion, and soaring prices. What will it take for these bottlenecks to resolve and for price pressures to ease?
Working Paper
Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record
This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as the recovery from the Great Depression took hold. First, by examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts, we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically. Second, using an event-studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence--both quantitative and narrative--that indicates that the shift in ...
Discussion Paper
Europe: Well-positioned to get through next winter without major gas shortages
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and resulting international sanctions, natural gas imports from Russia to Europe declined drastically to well below their historical averages. This reduction raised concerns about Europe’s energy supply, given its dependence on Russian gas.
Discussion Paper
Tapping the Brakes The Effect of the 2023 United Auto Workers Strike on Economic Activity
The United Auto Workers (UAW) union tapped the brakes and called for a strike against all Detroit Three automakers—General Motors (GM), Ford, and Stellantis—on September 15, 2023, after having failed to reach an agreement with the automakers on a new four-year contract. The strike lasted for about six weeks and was the first strike in history targeting all Detroit Three automakers.