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Searching for “Inflation Canaries” in Household Surveys
Current surveys of household inflation expectations make it challenging to identify “inflation canaries”—individuals who consistently send out early and accurate warning signals for inflation. We propose some simple changes in survey design (longer, staggered survey panels) and emphasis (focusing on changes in expectations rather than levels and highlighting particularly accurate subpopulations) that have the potential to alleviate these concerns. To demonstrate, we provide several examples using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.