Search Results
Report
Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market
In this paper, we compare price discovery in the foreign exchange futures and spot markets during a period in which the spot market was less transparent but had higher volume than the futures market. We develop a foreign exchange futures order flow measure that is a proxy for the order flow observed by Chicago Mercantile Exchange pit traders. We find that both foreign currency futures and spot order flow contain unique information relevant to exchange rate determination. When we measure contributions to price discovery using the methods of Hasbrouck and of Gonzalo and Granger, we obtain ...
Report
Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims
In this paper, I derive and implement a nonparametric, arbitrage-free technique for multivariate contingent claim (MVCC) pricing. Using results from the method of copulas, I show that the multivariate risk-neutral density can be written as a product of marginal risk-neutral densities and a risk-neutral dependence function. I then develop a pricing technique using nonparametrically estimated marginal risk-neutral densities (based on options data) and a nonparametric dependence function (based on historical return data). By using nonparametric estimation, I avoid the pricing biases that result ...
Journal Article
Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting
Since the 1970s, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable signal of an imminent recession. One interpretation of this signal is that markets expect monetary policy to ease as the Federal Reserve responds to an upcoming deterioration in economic conditions. Some have argued that the yield curve inversion in August 2006 did not signal an imminent recession, but instead was triggered by an unusually low level of the term premium. This article examines whether changes in the term premium can distort the recession signal given by an inverted yield curve. The authors use the Kim and Wright ...
Speech
Thrive in Any Environment: Strengthening Resilience Through Risk Management
Remarks at the Risk USA Conference, New York City.
Report
A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks
The goal of integrated risk management in a financial institution is to measure and manage risk and capital across a range of diverse business activities. This requires an approach for aggregating risk types (market, credit, and operational) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. In this paper, we use the method of copulas to construct the joint risk distribution for a typical large, internationally active bank. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture some of the essential empirical features of these risks-such as skewness and fat ...
Report
Stock returns and volatility: pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk
We decompose the time series of equity market risk into short- and long-run volatility components. Both components have negative and highly significant prices of risk in the cross section of equity returns. A three-factor model with the market return and the two volatility components compares favorably to benchmark models. We show that the short-run component captures market skewness risk, while the long-run component captures business cycle risk. Furthermore, short-run volatility is the more important cross-sectional risk factor, even though its average risk premium is smaller than the ...
Speech
Things That Have Never Happened Before Happen All the Time
Remarks at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Second National Risk Management Conference (delivered via videoconference).
Report
The effect of employee stock options on bank investment choice, borrowing, and capital
In this paper, we test the hypothesis that granting employee stock options motivates CEOs of banking firms to undertake riskier projects. We also investigate whether granting employee stock options reduces the bank's incentive to borrow while inducing a buildup of regulatory capital. Using a sample of 549 bank-years for publicly traded banks from 1992 to 2002, we find some evidence that the bank's equity volatility (total as well as residual) and asset volatility increase as CEO stock option holdings increase. In addition, it appears that granting employee stock options motivates banks to ...
Speech
Why do risk events occur? Insights from accident models: remarks at the 7th Annual Risk Americas 2018 Conference, New York City
Remarks at the 7th Annual Risk Americas 2018 Conference, New York City.
Report
How do treasury dealers manage their positions?
Using thirty-one years of data (1990–2020) on U.S. Treasury dealer positions, we find that Treasury issuance is the main driver of dealers’ weekly inventory changes. Such inventory fluctuations are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers are compensated for inventory risk by means of subsequent price appreciation of their holdings. Amid increased balance sheet costs attributable to post-crisis regulatory changes, dealers significantly reduce their position taking and lay off inventory faster. Moreover, the increased participation of ...