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Working Paper
Too much right can make a wrong: Setting the stage for the financial crisis
The financial crisis that started in 2007 exposed a number of flaws in the financial system. Many of these flaws were associated with financial instruments that were issued by the shadow banking system, especially securitized assets. The volume and complexity of securitized assets grew rapidly during runup to the financial crisis that began in 2007. The paper discusses how the financial crisis can be viewed as a possible but logical outcome of a system where investors are overconfident, busy, and investing other peoples? money and intermediaries are set up to take advantage of investors? ...
Working Paper
Research and development with asymmetric firm sizes
Working Paper
Merger momentum and investor sentiment: the stock market reaction to merger announcements
This paper examines the effects of mergers on bidding firms? stock prices. We find evidence of merger momentum: bidder stock prices are more likely to increase when a merger is announced if recent mergers by other firms have been received well (a ?hot? merger market) or if the overall stock market is doing better. However, there is long run reversal. Long-run bidder stock returns are lower for mergers announced when the either merger or stock markets were hot at the time of the merger than for those announced at other times.
Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Results from a Tabletop Exercise
This paper presents a tabletop exercise designed to analyze macroprudential policy. Several senior Federal Reserve officials were presented with a hypothetical economy as of 2020:Q2 in which commercial real estate and nonfinancial debt valuations were very high. After analyzing the economy and discussing the use of monetary and macroprudential policy tools, participants were then presented with a hypothetical negative shock to commercial real estate valuations that occurred in the second half of 2020. Participants then discussed the use of the tools during an incipient downturn. Some of the ...
Working Paper
Banks and derivatives
Newsletter
Understanding the relationship between life insurers and the Federal Home Loan Banks
This article describes the growing relationship between life insurance companies and the Federal Home Loan Banking (FHLB) system. Given the important role that both play in the U.S. financial system, it is important to understand how they are connected.
Working Paper
The role of lenders in the home price boom
This paper examines the relationship between real estate prices during the home price boom from the late 1990s into 2005 and competition among mortgage lenders. The mortgage lending business, especially with the rise of the originate-to-distribute model, had competitors with very different non- mortgage activities and regulation. I show that in local markets, when banks increased their share of mortgages relative to lenders such as mortgage brokers, home prices started increasing at a faster pace. Home prices also affected market shares, but primarily through changes at the national level. ...
Working Paper
Banking market conditions and deposit interest rates
This paper addresses the impact market conditions on bank deposit interest rates. Examining data for 1988-2000, we find that rates are affected by market size structure (defined as the distribution of market shares of banks of different sizes whether or not the market share is achieved entirely in that local market). This is in addition to the effects of market concentration noted in earlier work. We also find large differences between urban and rural markets. In rural areas, changes in market concentration have no effect on deposit rates. These findings have implications for antitrust policy ...
Working Paper
Eat or be eaten: a theory of mergers and firm size
We propose a theory of mergers that combines managerial merger motives and a regime shift that may lead to some value- increasing merger opportunities. Anticipation of the regime shift can lead to mergers, either for defensive or positioning reasons. Defensive mergers occur when managers acquire other firms to avoid being acquired themselves. Mergers may also allow a firm to position itself as a more attractive takeover target and earn a takeover premium. The identity of acquirers and targets and the profitability of acquisitions depend, among other factors, on the distribution of firm sizes ...
Working Paper
The impact of the originate-to-distribute model on banks before and during the financial crisis
The growth of securitization made it easier for banks to sell home mortgage loans that they originated. I explore how mortgage sales affected banks in the years leading up to the financial crisis that began in 2007 and how their pre-crisis mortgage sales affected banks during the crisis. Loan sales are important because most banks sell mortgages as part of the securitization process, but few actually do the securitization. I find that stock returns increase when banks increase sales of mortgages used for refinancing rather than home purchase, suggesting that some banks scale up lending during ...