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Journal Article
Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.
Journal Article
Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey
The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes ...
Journal Article
Second District update: a moderate recovery is in progress
After a prolonged recession, the Second District's economy began to expand in the second half of 1993. Several indicatorsthe growing volume of exports from the region, strong earnings on Wall Street, and job growth at newly formed businessessuggest that the recovery can be sustained in the quarters immediately ahead. In a supplemental analysis, the authors find that new small firms are the primary source of job generation in New York State, although they note that such firms also carry a higher risk of failure.
Journal Article
New York - New Jersey job recovery expected to continue in 1998
The pattern of employment recovery in the New York-New Jersey region is expected to remain unbroken in 1998, despite a slight slowing of job growth.
Journal Article
1997 job outlook: the New York-New Jersey region
Major industrial and government restructurings have dominated employment reports in the New York-New Jersey region, leading to widespread pessimism about the region's job prospects. Nevertheless, for the past several years, the two states have managed to achieve modest job gains. In 1997, employment growth in New York and New Jersey will accelerate slightly as the pace of restructurings slows.
Journal Article
Revenue implications of New York City's tax system
A study of New York City's tax system finds that over the past three decades, the system has become less reliant on property and general sales taxes and more dependent on corporate and personal income taxes. This shift has made the city's tax revenues less stable than the revenues of the 1970s and more sensitive to cyclical swings.
Journal Article
Employment in the New York - New Jersey Region: 2008 review and outlook
The 2007 slowing in job growth in the New York - New Jersey region continued through August 2008. A projected weakening in the national economy through the end of 2008 combined with the market turmoil affecting New York City's finance sector suggests that the region will post substantially smaller job gains this year than it did in 2007. Beyond 2008, continued financial stress could lead to an even sharper and more protracted contraction in the city's finance sector, potentially spreading to other sectors of the region's economy.
Journal Article
Job growth in New York and New Jersey: mid-2007 review and outlook
Employment in the New York-New Jersey region expanded by about 0.9 percent in 2006. Slightly slower job growth - on the order of 0.8 percent - was recorded in the first half of 2007 and is expected to continue throughout the year, in part reflecting moderating growth in the national economy. The employment rise in New York State was led by a strong expansion of services jobs in New York City; any sustained weakening in the city's financial sector would be unlikely to affect employment significantly until 2008.
Journal Article
Recent developments in New York City's economy
Against the background of widespread expectations of slower than normal growth in the national economy, this article examines the current state of New York City's economy. The author considers both the cyclical sources of strength available to the local economy and the structural forces that may impede growth.
Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...