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Journal Article
1997 job outlook: the New York-New Jersey region
Major industrial and government restructurings have dominated employment reports in the New York-New Jersey region, leading to widespread pessimism about the region's job prospects. Nevertheless, for the past several years, the two states have managed to achieve modest job gains. In 1997, employment growth in New York and New Jersey will accelerate slightly as the pace of restructurings slows.
Journal Article
New York-New Jersey region's job growth to continue in 1999, but risks have risen
Employment growth in the New York-New Jersey region in 1998 is likely to match the previous year's pace of 1.7 percent, or 200,000 new jobs. Growth will continue in 1999, but it will slow modestly, to about 1.2 percent, or 145,000 new jobs.
Journal Article
Revenue implications of New York City's tax system
A study of New York City's tax system finds that over the past three decades, the system has become less reliant on property and general sales taxes and more dependent on corporate and personal income taxes. This shift has made the city's tax revenues less stable than the revenues of the 1970s and more sensitive to cyclical swings.
Journal Article
Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.
Journal Article
1996 job outlook: the New York - New Jersey region
The New York-New Jersey region's hard-earned recovery in employment is being overshadowed by ongoing job losses in certain sectors and the prospect of moderating growth in the United States as a whole. Fortunately, several positive trends are bolstering the region's employment picture. Strength in the services sector, a falloff in restructuring, and gains in income point to continuing--though modest--regional job growth in 1996.
Journal Article
The New York - New Jersey job recovery
Modest employment is expected to continue through 1997, with the New York City metropolitan area creating the bulk of new jobs.
Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...
Journal Article
New York - New Jersey job expansion to continue in 2000
Employment growth in the New York-New Jersey region in 2000 is expected to reach 1.8 percent, or 290,000 new jobs--continuing a seven-year expansion trend. However, some moderation in the growth in the national economy over the second half of 2000 may slow the region's job growth and prevent it from matching last year's rate.
Journal Article
Employment in the New York - New Jersey Region: 2008 review and outlook
The 2007 slowing in job growth in the New York - New Jersey region continued through August 2008. A projected weakening in the national economy through the end of 2008 combined with the market turmoil affecting New York City's finance sector suggests that the region will post substantially smaller job gains this year than it did in 2007. Beyond 2008, continued financial stress could lead to an even sharper and more protracted contraction in the city's finance sector, potentially spreading to other sectors of the region's economy.
Journal Article
Is the worst over? Economic indexes and the course of the recession in New York and New Jersey
The New York-New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that the national economy is headed for recovery, suggest that the worst may be over for the region's economy. However, a downsizing of the area's critical finance sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward--particularly for New York City.