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Journal Article
1997 job outlook: the New York-New Jersey region
Major industrial and government restructurings have dominated employment reports in the New York-New Jersey region, leading to widespread pessimism about the region's job prospects. Nevertheless, for the past several years, the two states have managed to achieve modest job gains. In 1997, employment growth in New York and New Jersey will accelerate slightly as the pace of restructurings slows.
Journal Article
New York-New Jersey region's job growth to continue in 1999, but risks have risen
Employment growth in the New York-New Jersey region in 1998 is likely to match the previous year's pace of 1.7 percent, or 200,000 new jobs. Growth will continue in 1999, but it will slow modestly, to about 1.2 percent, or 145,000 new jobs.
Journal Article
Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey
The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes ...
Journal Article
New York City immigrants: the 1990s wave
Fueled by a steady influx of immigrants, New York City's population turnover in the 1990s was almost double the average for the nation's 100 largest cities. A close look at the city's new foreign-born residents suggests that they are a very diverse group, showing marked differences in education level, English language fluency, and other characteristics that help determine labor market skills and performance.
Journal Article
Job growth in New York and New Jersey: mid-2007 review and outlook
Employment in the New York-New Jersey region expanded by about 0.9 percent in 2006. Slightly slower job growth - on the order of 0.8 percent - was recorded in the first half of 2007 and is expected to continue throughout the year, in part reflecting moderating growth in the national economy. The employment rise in New York State was led by a strong expansion of services jobs in New York City; any sustained weakening in the city's financial sector would be unlikely to affect employment significantly until 2008.
Journal Article
1996 job outlook: the New York - New Jersey region
The New York-New Jersey region's hard-earned recovery in employment is being overshadowed by ongoing job losses in certain sectors and the prospect of moderating growth in the United States as a whole. Fortunately, several positive trends are bolstering the region's employment picture. Strength in the services sector, a falloff in restructuring, and gains in income point to continuing--though modest--regional job growth in 1996.
Journal Article
Revenue implications of New York City's tax system
A study of New York City's tax system finds that over the past three decades, the system has become less reliant on property and general sales taxes and more dependent on corporate and personal income taxes. This shift has made the city's tax revenues less stable than the revenues of the 1970s and more sensitive to cyclical swings.
Journal Article
New York - New Jersey job expansion to continue in 2000
Employment growth in the New York-New Jersey region in 2000 is expected to reach 1.8 percent, or 290,000 new jobs--continuing a seven-year expansion trend. However, some moderation in the growth in the national economy over the second half of 2000 may slow the region's job growth and prevent it from matching last year's rate.
Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...
Journal Article
Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region
The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.