Journal Article
Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates
Sellon, Gordon H.; Roley, V. Vance (1995-10)
It is generally believed that monetary policy actions are transmitted to the economy through their effect on market interest rates. According to this standard view, a restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve pushes up both short-term and long-term interest rates, leading to less spending by interest-sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing, consumer durable goods, and business fixed investment. Conversely, an easier policy results in lower interest rates that stimulate economic activity. Unfortunately, empirical studies and the observed behavior of interest rates appear to ...
Economic Review , Volume 80 , Issue Q IV , Pages 73-89

Journal Article
Business fixed investment in the 1980s: prospective needs and policy alternatives
Berson, David W.; Roley, V. Vance (1981-02)
Economic Review , Volume 66 , Issue Feb , Pages 3-16

Journal Article
Federal debt management policy: a re-examination of the issues
Roley, V. Vance (1978-02)
Economic Review , Volume 63 , Issue Feb , Pages 14-23

Working Paper
Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements
Sellon, Gordon H.; Roley, V. Vance (1998)
This paper examines how Treasury security yields, stock prices, and federal funds futures rates respond on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting dates when expected policy actions do not occur. The empirical results support the existence of nonannouncement effects on short- and intermediate-term yields. In particular, part of an expected policy action, measured using federal funds futures rates, is unwound when the action does not materialize. This partial unwinding is consistent with markets reacting to the surprise by postponing, but not eliminating, the possibility of a future ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-06

Conference Paper
The response of interest rates to money announcements under alternative operating procedures and reserve requirement systems
Roley, V. Vance (1985)
Proceedings , Issue 7 , Pages 127-160

Working Paper
U.S. monetary policy regimes and U.S.-Japan financial relationships
Roley, V. Vance (1986)
Research Working Paper , Paper 86-03

Journal Article
Federal deficits and the stock market
Schall, Lawrence D.; Roley, V. Vance (1988-04)
Empirical evidence shows that federal budget deficits have historically tended to increase stock market prices. Because deficits rose to unprecedented levels in the 1980s, however, increasing concern about their impact on interest rates and inflation may have contributed to the October 1987 decline in stock prices.
Economic Review , Volume 73 , Issue Apr , Pages 17-27

Working Paper
The effect of monetary policy actions on exchange rates under interest-rate targeting
Roley, V. Vance; Bonser-Neal, Catherine; Sellon, Gordon H. (1997)
One puzzling feature of recent empirical studies of the effects of monetary policy changes on exchange rates is the result that the exchange rate does not adjust immediately to the policy shock. Instead, these studies find that it can take as long as two years for the exchange rate to fully reflect the policy change. In this paper, a model of the exchange-rate response to U.S. monetary policy actions which captures these results is specified. This model is also capable of generating standard overshooting results. The authors show that the response pattern of spot and expected future exchange ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 97-05

Journal Article
Market perception of U.S. monetary policy since 1982
Roley, V. Vance (1986-05)
Economic Review , Volume 71 , Issue May , Pages 27-40

Working Paper
Time series variation in the interest-rate response to money announcements: a re-examination of the evidence
Roley, V. Vance; Wheatley, Simon M. (1994)
Research Working Paper , Paper 94-08