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How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States
Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We use recent econometric techniques for break testing to examine whether the empirical relationships are in fact stable. We consider continuous models, which predict either economic growth or inflation, and binary models, which predict either recessions or inflationary pressure. In each case, we draw on ...
Report
One-sided test for an unknown breakpoint: theory, computation, and application to monetary theory
The econometrics literature contains a variety of two-sided tests for unknown breakpoints in time-series models with one or more parameters. This paper derives an analogous one-sided test that takes into account the direction of the change for a single parameter. In particular, we propose a sup t statistic, which is distributed as a normalized Brownian bridge. The method is illustrated by testing whether the reaction of monetary policy to inflation has increased since 1959.
Journal Article
Government securities investments of commercial banks
Government securities holdings at U.S. commercial banks have risen rapidly since 1990. The author contrasts the recent rise with increases observed during and after earlier recessions and evaluates possible explanations for the buildup. In addition, he presents a rough estimate of the interest exposure created solely by the securities acquisitions and compares it with estimates for earlier periods when commercial banks also added U.S. securities to their portfolios at a fast rate.
Journal Article
Financial liberalization and monetary control in Japan
This article examines the effects of financial market reform on monetary control in Japan during the past two decades. The authors identify changes in the Bank of Japan's operating strategy and evaluate the Bank's ability to influence key policy variables in the current liberalized environment.
Report
A test of international CAPM