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Journal Article
Ill winds can’t blow U.S. economy off course
Three ferocious hurricanes in 2005 failed to dampen the country?s economic momentum, and disruptions to the nation?s oil and natural gas supply created only temporary shocks.
Journal Article
The impact of oil prices on economic activity
Journal Article
Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance
The data on economic variables are usually estimates, and these estimates may be revised many times after their initial publication. Most historical forecast evaluation exercises use the "latest available" or most recently revised vintage of historical data when constructing the forecasts-that is, they use estimates that may well have been unavailable to a forecaster in real time. Evaluations using such data could thus give a misleading picture of the forecast performance that can be expected in real-time situations. This fact is particularly relevant if a forecasting model's performance is ...
Working Paper
Forecasting using relative entropy
The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a set of moment restrictions. The new distribution is chosen to be as close as possible to the original in the sense of minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, or relative entropy. The authors illustrate the technique by using several examples that show how restrictions from ...
Conference Paper
Resolving the liquidity effect.
Journal Article
Resolving the liquidity effect.
Journal Article
Living in an 800 MHz economy
Journal Article
Southeastern economy still feeling recession's effects
Working Paper
Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models
Models used for policy analysis should generate reliable unconditional forecasts as well as policy simulations (conditional forecasts) that are based on a structural model of the economy. Vector autoregression (VAR) models have been criticized for having inaccurate forecasts as well as being difficult to interpret in the context of an underlying economic model. In this paper, we examine how the treatment of prior uncertainty about parameter values can affect forecasting accuracy and the interpretation of identified structural VAR models. ; Typically, VAR models are specified with long lag ...
Working Paper
The push-pull effects of the information technology boom and bust: insight from matched employer-employee data
This paper examines the inflow and outflow of workers to different industries in Georgia during the information technology (IT) boom of the 1990s and the subsequent bust. Workers in the software and computer services industry were much more likely to have been absent from the Georgia workforce prior to the boom but were no more likely than workers from other industries to have exited the workforce during the bust. Consequently, the Georgia workforce likely experienced a net gain in worker human capital as a result of being an area of concentration of IT-producing activity during the IT boom.