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Working Paper
Empirical tests of two state-variable HJM models
Models for pricing interest rate claims, developed under the Heath-Jarrow-Morton paradigm, differ according to the volatility structure imposed on forward rates. For most general HJM structures the resultant path dependence creates implementation problems. Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian have recently identified necessary and sufficient conditions on the class of volatility structures of forward rates that enable the term structure dynamics to be captured by a finite set of state variables. The class is quite rich. The instantaneous spot rate volatility may be quite general, but the model ...
Conference Paper
On credit spread slopes and predicting bank risk
Working Paper
Getting the most out of a mandatory subordinated debt requirement
Recent advances in asset pricing-the reduced-form approach to pricing risky debt and derivatives-are used to quantitatively evaluate several proposals for mandatory bank issue of subordinated debt. The authors find that credit spreads on both fixed- and floating-rate subordinated debt provide relatively clean signals of bank risk and are not unduly influenced by non-risk factors. Fixed-rate debt with a put is unacceptable, but making the putable debt floating resolves most problems. The authors' approach also helps to clarify several different notions of "bank risk."
Working Paper
The changing role of banks and the changing value of deposit guarantees
Using a model for pricing deposit guarantees that treats the bank's investments as a portfolio of default-free bonds and risky loans, the authors push back uncertainty to the level of the borrowing firm and thus are able to explore how factors like firm leverage, loan maturity, and correlation effects between the firm's assets and interest rates affect the value of deposit guarantees.
Working Paper
Interest rate option pricing with volatility humps
A development of a simple model in which interest rate claims are priced in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton paradigm and so incorporate full information on the term structure. The volatility structure for forward rates is humped and includes as a special case the exponentially dampened volatility structure used in the generalized Vasicek model.
Working Paper
Monitoring and controlling bank risk: does risky debt serve any purpose?
To examine whether mandating banks to issue subordinated debt would enhance market monitoring and control risk-taking, the authors extract the credit-spread curve for each banking firm in their sample. After controlling for changes in market and liquidity variables, they find that changes in credit spreads do not reflect changes in bank risk variables. The result is robust to firm type, examination rating, size, leverage, and profitability, as well as to different model specifications. They also find that issuing subordinated debt does not alter banks' risk-taking behavior. They conclude that ...
Working Paper
Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates
This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates. The term structures are driven by state variables that include the short term real interest rate, expected inflation, a factor that models the changing level to which inflation is expected to revert, as well as four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical solutions for the prices of nominal bonds, inflation-indexed bonds that have an indexation lag, the term structure of expected inflation, and inflation swap rates. The model parameters are estimated ...
Conference Paper
Getting the most out of mandatory subordinated debt requirement
Conference Paper
The asset flexibility option and the value of deposit insurance