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Working Paper
The quest for the natural rate: evidence from a measure of labor market turbulence
The natural rate of unemployment changes over time as a result of structural shifts in the distribution of employment across sectors. This paper develops a Kalman filtering approach to measuring these structural shifts or turbulence. The technique is useful in distinguishing those changes in employment shares within an industry that are cyclical from those that are idiosyncratic. A measure of the business cycles is generated that is consistent with alternative measures of the cycle. A time--varying measure of the natural rate is constructed as the rate of unemployment that is consistent with ...
Journal Article
Assessing the jobless recovery
This article reviews trends in employment growth during the recent recovery, including new evidence that much of the increase in self-employment since the beginning of the recession is likely a reflection of the weak labor market conditions of the last three years. The authors also offer thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of several explanations for the disappointing employment growth of the last few years.
Journal Article
What is the natural rate of unemployment?
Journal Article
Measuring labor market turbulence
Increased economic turbulence leads to increases in the full employment level of unemployment. This article proposes a measure of economic turbulence using data on employment shares across broad industry categories. The effect of the business cycle on employment shares has been removed to allow for a measure of turbulence that reflects only idiosyncratic shocks to the various sectors.
Journal Article
The self-employment duration of younger men over the business cycle
Spells of self-employment for younger men are typically of short duration with slightly more than half lasting two years or less. This article examines factors that lead to longer durations, focusing on the role of cyclical factors in distinguishing entrepreneurs from discouraged wage workers.
Working Paper
Self-employment as an alternative to unemployment
Data from the NLSY show that more than a quarter of all younger men experience some period of self- employment. Many of them return to wage work. This paper analyzes a simple model of job search and self- employment where self- employment provides an alternative source of income for unemployed workers. Self- employment is distinct from wage sector employment in two important respects. First, self- employment is a low-income, low- variation alternative to wage work. Second, once a worker enters self-employment, he loses eligibility to receive unemployment insurance benefits?at least until he ...
Working Paper
Barriers to trade and union wage dynamics