Search Results
Journal Article
Employment growth: cyclical movements or structural change?
In judging the degree of slack in the economy, policymakers must determine the origin of any increase in the unemployment rate?specifically, how much of it is due to a cyclical slowdown (driven by the broader economy) as opposed to a structural realignment in production (driven by a shift in production from declining industries to expanding ones). The model developed in this article provides some insight into the sources and magnitude of structural change and its impact on the unemployment rate.
Newsletter
Why is inflation so low?
Journal Article
Measuring labor market turbulence
Increased economic turbulence leads to increases in the full employment level of unemployment. This article proposes a measure of economic turbulence using data on employment shares across broad industry categories. The effect of the business cycle on employment shares has been removed to allow for a measure of turbulence that reflects only idiosyncratic shocks to the various sectors.
Working Paper
Trade policy and union wage dynamics
Working Paper
Wage growth and sectoral shifts: Phillips curve redux
Journal Article
Long-run labor market dynamics and short-run inflation
Journal Article
What is the natural rate of unemployment?
Working Paper
Self-employment as an alternative to unemployment
Data from the NLSY show that more than a quarter of all younger men experience some period of self- employment. Many of them return to wage work. This paper analyzes a simple model of job search and self- employment where self- employment provides an alternative source of income for unemployed workers. Self- employment is distinct from wage sector employment in two important respects. First, self- employment is a low-income, low- variation alternative to wage work. Second, once a worker enters self-employment, he loses eligibility to receive unemployment insurance benefits?at least until he ...