Working Paper
The quest for the natural rate: evidence from a measure of labor market turbulence
Rissman, Ellen R. (1998)
The natural rate of unemployment changes over time as a result of structural shifts in the distribution of employment across sectors. This paper develops a Kalman filtering approach to measuring these structural shifts or turbulence. The technique is useful in distinguishing those changes in employment shares within an industry that are cyclical from those that are idiosyncratic. A measure of the business cycles is generated that is consistent with alternative measures of the cycle. A time--varying measure of the natural rate is constructed as the rate of unemployment that is consistent with ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-98-10

Working Paper
Barriers to trade and union wage dynamics
Rissman, Ellen R. (1992)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 92-22

Journal Article
Regional employment growth and the business cycle
Rissman, Ellen R. (1999-10)
Employment growth is highly correlated across regions. The author uses joint movements in regional employment growth to define and estimate a common factor, analogues to the business cycle. Regions differ substantially in the relative importance of cyclical shocks and idiosyncratic shocks in explaining the steady state variance in regional employment growth. For example, cyclical shocks account for almost 90 percent of the steady state variance in employment growth in the East South Central region and about 40 percent in the West South Central Region.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 23 , Issue Q IV , Pages 21-39

Journal Article
Assessing the jobless recovery
Aaronson, Daniel; Rissman, Ellen R.; Sullivan, Daniel G. (2004-04)
This article reviews trends in employment growth during the recent recovery, including new evidence that much of the increase in self-employment since the beginning of the recession is likely a reflection of the weak labor market conditions of the last three years. The authors also offer thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of several explanations for the disappointing employment growth of the last few years.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 28 , Issue Q II

Journal Article
Measuring labor market turbulence
Rissman, Ellen R. (1997-05)
Increased economic turbulence leads to increases in the full employment level of unemployment. This article proposes a measure of economic turbulence using data on employment shares across broad industry categories. The effect of the business cycle on employment shares has been removed to allow for a measure of turbulence that reflects only idiosyncratic shocks to the various sectors.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 21 , Issue May , Pages 2-14

Journal Article
Employment growth: cyclical movements or structural change?
Rissman, Ellen R. (2009-10)
In judging the degree of slack in the economy, policymakers must determine the origin of any increase in the unemployment rate?specifically, how much of it is due to a cyclical slowdown (driven by the broader economy) as opposed to a structural realignment in production (driven by a shift in production from declining industries to expanding ones). The model developed in this article provides some insight into the sources and magnitude of structural change and its impact on the unemployment rate.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 33 , Issue Q IV

Newsletter
Why is inflation so low?
Rissman, Ellen R. (1988-08)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Sectoral wage growth and inflation
Rissman, Ellen R. (1995-07)
Economic Perspectives , Volume 19 , Issue Jul

Working Paper
Self-employment as an alternative to unemployment
Rissman, Ellen R. (2003)
Data from the NLSY show that more than a quarter of all younger men experience some period of self- employment. Many of them return to wage work. This paper analyzes a simple model of job search and self- employment where self- employment provides an alternative source of income for unemployed workers. Self- employment is distinct from wage sector employment in two important respects. First, self- employment is a low-income, low- variation alternative to wage work. Second, once a worker enters self-employment, he loses eligibility to receive unemployment insurance benefits?at least until he ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-34

Journal Article
The self-employment duration of younger men over the business cycle
Rissman, Ellen R. (2006-07)
Spells of self-employment for younger men are typically of short duration with slightly more than half lasting two years or less. This article examines factors that lead to longer durations, focusing on the role of cyclical factors in distinguishing entrepreneurs from discouraged wage workers.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 30 , Issue Q III , Pages 14-27