Search Results
Discussion Paper
Understanding Trade Fragmentation
A large empirical literature, including Gopinath et al. (2025), finds that geopolitical distance has become an increasingly important determinant of bilateral trade flows. This work has fueled debate about the consequences of fragmentation and the extent to which global value chains are being reshaped.
Discussion Paper
Real-Time Global Longer-Run Neutral Rates
In this note, we provide updated real-time estimates for global longer-run real neutral interest rates – the real component of policy interest rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their longer-run trends. We use the methods from Davin and Ferreira (2022) and Ferreira and Shousha (2023) for the same variety of economies.
Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...
Discussion Paper
Fragmentation? Revisiting the Ideal Point Distance measure of geopolitical distance
In recent years, there has been growing interest in investigating the extent of geoeconomic fragmentation, defined as a policy-driven reversal of global economic integration. While world trade relative to GDP has remained relatively stable, geoeconomic fragmentation may manifest through the reconfiguration of trading patterns.
Discussion Paper
An investigation into the economic slowdown in the euro area
Euro-area economic performance has been subdued since around 2018, and especially so in more recent years. As discussed in both Enrico Letta's and Mario Draghi's reports, the euro area economy faces notable structural challenges that were exacerbated by the pandemic and the disruption to energy markets that ensued from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Working Paper
Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation: Implications for Trade, Financial Flows, and Economic Policy
Recent geopolitical tensions have revived interest in understanding the economic consequences of geopolitical fragmentation. Using bilateral trade flows, portfolio investment data, and detailed records of economic policy interventions, we revisit widely-used geopolitical distance metrics, specifically the Ideal Point Distance (IPD) derived from United Nations General Assembly voting. We document substantial variability in measured fragmentation, driven significantly by methodological choices related to sample periods and vote categories, especially in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of ...