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Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-02-15)
Despite recent negative real wage growth, workers have experienced real wage gains over the two years of the pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-11-22)
Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our methodology possesses smaller ex-post aggregate inflation forecast errors relative to forecasts based on conventional survey questions. We ask this question in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 countries, and we show that indirect consumer inflation expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-35

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Report
Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2011)
This paper examines the ex post flexibility of U.S. labor contracts during the 1970-95 period by investigating whether unanticipated changes in inflation increase the likelihood of a contract being renegotiated prior to its expiration. We find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Specifically, our results indicate that renegotiations are triggered principally by large and infrequent price shocks of either sign. When combined with evidence that ex ante contract durations are shorter during episodes of increased inflation uncertainty, our results suggest that these contracts are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 521

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?
Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Dogra, Keshav; Heise, Sebastian; Knotek, Edward S.; Meyer, Brent; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-06-02)
How do firms set prices? What factors do they consider, and to what extent are cost increases passed through to prices? While these are important questions in general, they become even more salient during periods of high inflation. In this blog post, we highlight preliminary results from ongoing research on firms’ price-setting behavior, a joint project between researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York. We use a combination of open-ended interviews and a quantitative survey in our analysis. Firms reported that the strength of demand was the most important ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230602

Conference Paper
Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
Rich, Robert W.; Kahn, James A. (2003-11)
The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we draw on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two "regimes" high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. In addition, we find that ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-08-01)
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-22

Report
Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity
Kahn, James A.; Rich, Robert W. (2003-01-01)
The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity namely consumption and labor compensation to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two "regimes," high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in ...
Staff Reports , Paper 159

Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
Rosen, Rae D.; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Rich, Robert W. (2004)
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 188

Report
Structural change in U.S. wage determination
Rissmiller, Donald; Rich, Robert W. (2001)
This paper provides an empirical investigation into the determinants and stability of the aggregate wage inflation process in the United States over the 1967-2000 period. Using compensation per hour as the measure of wages, we specify a Phillips curve model that links wage growth to its past values as well as to the unemployment rate, price inflation, labor productivity growth, and an additional set of labor market variables. The results do not reject the hypothesis that real wages and labor productivity move proportionally in the long run. More important, endogenous structural break tests ...
Staff Reports , Paper 117

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