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Journal Article
Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Rich, Robert W.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2010-08)
Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households' decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households' inflation expectations, ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Aug/Sep

Journal Article
Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2019 Conference Summary
Schoenle, Raphael; Wiederholt, Mirko; Blanco, Andres; Zhang, Tony; Tielens, Joris; Paustian, Matthias; Kim, Mina; Ryngaert, Jane; Knotek, Edward S.; Weber, Michael; Rich, Robert W. (2019-12-19)
To provide insights into the processes that drive inflationary dynamics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holdsan annual conference on the topic of inflation: “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics.” This Commentary summarizes thepapers presented at the 2019 conference.
Economic Commentary , Volume 2019 , Issue 22 , Pages 6

Report
The FRBNY staff underlying inflation gauge: UIG
Potter, Simon M.; Rich, Robert W.; Amstad, Marlene (2014-04-22)
Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the ?FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)? for CPI and PCE. Using a dynamic factor model approach, the UIG is derived from a broad data set that extends beyond price series to include a wide range of nominal, real, and financial variables. It also considers the specific and time-varying ...
Staff Reports , Paper 672

Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition
Howard, Sean; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-02-15)
Despite recent negative real wage growth, workers have experienced real wage gains over the two years of the pandemic.
Dallas Fed Economics

Discussion Paper
Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market?
Rich, Robert W.; Bram, Jason; Abel, Joshua (2013-09-04)
Consumer confidence is closely monitored by policymakers and commentators because of the presumed insight it can offer into the outlook for consumer spending and thus the economy in general. Yet there’s another useful dimension to consumer confidence that’s often overlooked: its ability to signal incipient developments in the job market. In this post, we look at trends in a particular measure of consumer confidence—the Present Situation Index component of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index—over the past thirty-five years and show that they’re closely associated with ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130904

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market
Morris, Michael; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2019-12-17)
In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
The historical and recent behavior of goods and services inflation
Rich, Robert W.; Peach, Richard; Antoniades, Alexis (2004-12)
Since the late 1990s, the combination of relatively high services inflation and declining goods prices has produced a record-level gap in these inflation rates. Some commentators argue that if the gap between services and goods inflation continues to expand in this manner, the outcome will be either faster overall inflation or deflation. This article examines the relationship between these divergent inflation rates from 1967 to 2002. The authors find that while the level of each inflation rate is subject to permanent shifts, the gap between services inflation and goods inflation over time ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 19-31

Journal Article
The Anchoring of US Inflation Expectations Since 2012
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph; Naggert, Kristoph (2023-07-11)
The stabilization, or anchoring, of inflation expectations at a target can help a central bank meet its goals. This paper develops a measure of expectations’ anchoring that combines the deviation of a consensus forecast from an inflation target with forecaster disagreement. We apply the measure to survey-based forecasts of PCE price inflation at medium- and longer-run horizons. Following the FOMC’s 2012 announcement of a 2 percent inflation target, the anchoring of both forecast series steadily improved through 2020:Q4. Recently, while longer-run expectations have remained well-anchored, ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 11 , Pages 7

Report
The linkage between regional economic indexes and tax bases: evidence from New York
Rosen, Rae D.; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Rich, Robert W. (2004)
This paper examines the linkage between economic activity and tax revenues for New York State and New York City. Drawing upon the methodology of Stock and Watson, we use a dynamic single-factor model to estimate indexes of coincident economic indicators. We also construct measures of the sales and withholding tax bases. To conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the indexes of economic activity and the tax base series, we use vector autoregression and error correction models. The results provide strong evidence that the coincident indexes contain useful information for ...
Staff Reports , Paper 188

Report
The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis
Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2017-02-01)
This paper examines point and density forecasts from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents? forecast performance and forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is little co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement, and forecast performance shows a more robust ...
Staff Reports , Paper 808

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