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Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market
In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.
What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?
This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.
A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment
The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”
As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?
A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.
How Much Do Movers Move Average Wage Growth?
Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher.
Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think?
There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated.
Pandemic Pushed the U.S. into Recession … and Hourly Wages Rose?
The onset of COVID-19 in spring 2020 prompted an unprecedented rapid rise in the unemployment rate. However, a popular and widely cited wage measure—average hourly earnings (AHE)—rose sharply as the health crisis grew.
How Much Slack Is Left in the Labor Market?
Our analysis shows that viewing the level of employment through the lens of the employment-to-population ratio does not indicate considerable slack in the labor market.
U.S. Labor Market Slack Created by COVID-19 Pandemic Has Been Absorbed
The weaker-than-expected August labor market report should not obscure the labor market’s ongoing and significant progress while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition
Despite recent negative real wage growth, workers have experienced real wage gains over the two years of the pandemic.