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Working Paper
Asia's financial crisis: lessons and policy responses
This paper argues that fundamental weaknesses in Asian financial systems that had been masked by rapid growth were at the root of East Asia's 1997 currency and financial crisis. These weaknesses were caused by the lack of incentives for effective risk management created by implicit or explicit government guarantees against failure. The weakness of the financial sector was accentuated by large capital inflows, which were partly encouraged by pegged exchange rates. ; Policy responses need to be designed to restore growth in an environment of macroeconomic stability in the short run, and to ...
Working Paper
Price discovery in a market under stress: the U.S. Treasury market in fall 1998
We analyze how price discovery in the inter- dealer market for U.S. Treasury securities differs between stressful times and normal periods. Using tick-by-tick data on inter-dealer transactions in the on-the- run two-year, five-year and 10-year Treasury notes, we find that the impact of trades on prices tends to become significantly stronger on stressful days. This effect remains after accounting for the faster trading, wider spreads, and shallower depth observed on stressful days
Journal Article
Market returns and mutual fund flows
With the increased popularity of mutual funds come increased concerns. Namely, could a sharp drop in stock and bond prices set off a cascade of redemptions by mutual fund investors and could the redemptions exert further downward pressure on asset markets? The authors analyze this relationship by using instrumental variables--a measuring technique previously unapplied to market returns and mutual fund flows--to determine the effect of returns on flows. Despite market observers' fears of a downward spiral in asset prices, the authors conclude that the short-term effect of market returns on ...
Journal Article
Risk management by structured derivative product companies
In the early 1990s, some U.S. securities firms and foreign banks began creating subsidiary vehicles--known as structured derivative product companies (DPCs)--whose special risk management approaches enabled them to obtain triple-A credit ratings with the least amount of capital. At first, market observers expected credit-sensitive customers to turn increasingly to these DPCs. However, the authors find that structured DPCs--despite their superior ratings--have failed to live up to their initial promise and have yet to gain a competitive edge as intermediaries in the derivatives markets.
Journal Article
What moves the bond market?
In an examination of the U.S. Treasury securities market, the authors attempt to explain the sharpest price changes and most active trading episodes. They find that each of the twenty-five largest price shocks and twenty-five greatest trading surges can be attributed to just-released macroeconomic announcements. They also measure the market's average reactions to theses announcements and analyze the extent to which the reactions depend on the degree of announcement surprise and on prevailing market conditions. The market's price and trading reactions are found to reflect differences of ...
Journal Article
Finance companies, bank competition, and niche markets
During the 1980s, U.S. commercial banks faced increased competition in their lending activity from large finance companies. This article analyzes the differential performance of banks and finance companies in various segments of the consumer and business credit markets. In particular, it explores why banks were seemingly slow to take advantage of opportunities in fast-growing finance company niche markets.
Journal Article
Corporate refinancing in the 1990s
U.S. corporations have floated stocks and bonds in unprecedented amounts in the last year. How much have corporate treasurers reduced their firms' interest payments through such refinancing? After assessing the motives for refinancing, the authors estimate the aggregate interest savings achieved through equity issuance, bond calls, and bond sales and compare the effectiveness of refinancing and lower short-term interest rates in easing the interest burden on U.S. corporations' cash flows.
Journal Article
The recent growth of financial derivative markets
This article examines the reasons for the phenomenal growth of financial derivative markets in recent years. The author shows how specific demand forces have largely determined the direction and speed of the derivatives' spread.
Journal Article
The pricing and hedging of market index deposits