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Journal Article
The Relationship between Oil and Equities at the Zero Lower Bound
Economists have observed that the correlation between oil price changes and equity returns changed dramatically after 2008. Before 2008, oil and equity prices were generally uncorrelated, while after 2008 they became highly correlated.
Journal Article
The Changing Relationship between Trade and America’s Gold Reserves
For much of U.S. history, gold reserves and trade flows were closely linked. That changed with the end of the gold standard.
Journal Article
Industry Mix May Help Explain Urban-Rural Divide in Economic Growth
Economic growth in U.S. rural areas may be slower than growth in urban areas because of a different industry mix.
Journal Article
Understanding the Roots of the U.S. Trade Deficit
The rise of the U.S. dollar as an international reserve currency and a shift in comparative advantage in manufacturing are key economic changes driving the large U.S. trade deficit.
Trade and U.S. Gold Reserves during the Classical Gold Standard Era
During the period from around 1870 to the outbreak of World War I, changes in a nation’s gold reserves were closely linked to changes in its trade balances.
Journal Article
Changing Trade Relations May Affect U.S. Auto Exports in Long Run
The proposed trade agreement USMCA and trade disputes with China may have an impact on the U.S. auto sector.
Journal Article
First-Time Homebuyers Appear to Be Younger, Less Creditworthy in Eighth District
First-time homebuyers are essential to the dynamics of the housing market by allowing current homeowners to trade up. The number of first-time homebuyers decreased between 2000 and 2011, and then started slowly increasing again. There are many possible reasons why this happened, such as rising rent and home prices, rising student debt and tightening credit standards.
Journal Article
Measuring Labor Share in Developing Countries
Oftentimes economists think of income in terms of its factor components: labor and capital. The labor share is the fraction of labor income over gross domestic product (GDP), while the capital share is similarly the fraction of capital income over GDP. The labor share used to not draw much attention from researchers because it was long considered to be constant over time. However, it is now well-documented that the labor share in developed countries has, in fact, declined over the last few decades, but evidence remains mixed for developing countries.
How to Achieve a V-Shaped Recovery amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
Contrasting the Great Depression and Great Recession recoveries helps show how GDP levels and growth rates can respond to different levels of policy responses.
Journal Article
Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored many societal issues, including the capacity of different world governments to contain the virus’ spread.