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Journal Article
Revision of the monetary base
Journal Article
A comparative static analysis of some monetarist propositions
Journal Article
A neutral federal funds rate?
Journal Article
Energy resources and potential GNP
Working Paper
Perfecting the market's knowledge of monetary policy
The rational expectations revolution made clear that a complete macro model requires a specification of the government's economic policy. We argue that monetary policy should be conducted in such a way that the market can predict policy actions. An implication of market success in predicting policy actions is that interest rates move ahead of the policy actions, and such a timing relationship may appear to some as the central bank following the market instead of leading it. Another implication of the market predicting policy actions is that nominal interest rate changes provide no useful ...
Journal Article
The reform of October 1979: how it happened and why
This study offers a historical review of the monetary policy reform of October 6, 1979, and discusses the influences behind it and its significance. We lay out the record from the start of 1979 through the spring of 1980, relying almost exclusively on contemporaneous sources, including the recently released transcripts of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings during 1979. We then present and discuss in detail the reasons for the FOMC's adoption of the reform and the communications challenge presented to the Committee during this period. Further, we examine whether the essential ...
Working Paper
The domestic adjusted monetary base
This paper provides a consistent, monthly measure of the amount of the U.S. adjusted monetary base that is domestically held, and of the amount held abroad. Most macroeconomic models that address the role of outside money as a determinant of the economy's aggregate price level are closed economy models, suggesting a need to accurately measure the domestic monetary base. To do so, this paper presents a new method to estimate the amount of U.S. currency held abroad, a method which exploits data on the processing of currency at the Federal Reserve's 37 cash offices. Estimates of domestic ...