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Working Paper
Global Transportation Decarbonization
A number of policy proposals call for replacing fossil fuels in the name of decarbonization, but these fuels will be difficult to replace due to their as-yet unrivaled bundle of attributes: abundance, ubiquity, energy density, transportability and cost. There is a growing commitment to electrification as the dominant decarbonization pathway for transportation. While deep electrification is promising for road vehicles in wealthy countries, it will face steep obstacles. In other sectors and in the developing world, it’s not even in pole position. Global transportation decarbonization will ...
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also ...
Working Paper
The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification
Electrification is a centerpiece of global decarbonization efforts. Yet there are reasons to be skeptical of the inevitability, or at least the optimal pace, of the transition. We discuss several under-appreciated costs of full, or even deep, electrification. Consumer preferences can operate in favor of and in opposition to electrification goals; and electrification is likely to encounter physical and economic obstacles when it reaches some as-yet-unknown level. While we readily acknowledge the external benefits of decarbonization, we also explore several under-appreciated external costs. The ...
How global oil sanctions lowered Russian oil export prices
The decline in Russian oil export revenue since January 2022 was achieved by reducing the Russian export price rather than the volume of Russian oil exports.
Working Paper
Do Bill Shocks Induce Energy Efficiency Investments?
Inattention can lead to suboptimal investment in energy efficiency. We study whether electricity bill shocks draw attention to the benefits of home energy efficiency investments. Our novel identification strategy builds on the fact that prolonged extreme weather events (which raise electricity costs for many customers) fall within a single billing cycle for some customers but are split across cycles for others. We find that households exposed to average sized bill shocks are 22 percent more likely to invest in energy efficiency than households with normal bills. This result suggests that ...