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Journal Article
The effectiveness of homeownership in building household wealth
The recent economic and financial crisis and the current slow recovery highlight that homeownership plays a critical role in the U.S. economy. The estimated ?equivalent rent? implicitly paid by homeowners accounts for more than 8 percent of gross domestic product. Investment in single-family housing also represents a significant share of GDP and is closely tied to the business cycle. During the past decade, such investment has ranged from as little as 1.3 percent of GDP during recessions to as much as 3.4 percent during expansions. The associated large fluctuations in demand for ...
Working Paper
Productivity, congested commuting, and metro size
The monocentric city model is generalized to a fully structural form with leisure in utility, congested commuting, and the equalizing of utility and perimeter land price across metros. Exogenous and agglomerative differences in total factor productivity (TFP) drive differences in metro population, radius, land use, commute time, and home prices. Quantitative results approximate observed correspondences among these outcomes across U.S. metros. Traffic congestion proves the critical force constraining population. Self-driving cars significantly increase the sensitivity of metro population to ...
Working Paper
Moving to nice weather
U.S. residents, both old and young, have been moving en masse to places with nice weather. Well known is the migration towards places with warmer winter weather, which is often attributed to the introduction of air conditioning. But people have also been moving to places with cooler and less-humid summer weather, which is the opposite of what would be expected from the introduction of air conditioning. Empirical evidence suggests that the main force driving weather-related moves is an increasing valuation of weather's contribution to quality of life. Cross-sectional population growth ...
Journal Article
Housing Services Inflation May Decline Only Gradually
The inflation rate for housing services remains about 2 percentage points above its 2019 level. Several factors are likely to slow its decline, including more than a decade of underbuilding prior to the pandemic, limited capacity to increase the nation’s housing stock, and the limited number of homes available for sale due to the steeper mortgage rates owners would face if they sold and purchased a different home.
Working Paper
How does openness to capital flows affect growth?
An average adjustment cost which is convex with respect to the rate of gross investment success-fully calibrates a neoclassical growth model to match real world observables including the transition paths of convergence speed, the shadow value of capital, interest rates, and savings rates. Comparing the open-economy and closed-economy versions of the calibrated model shows that relaxing the constraint that domestic savings finance domestic investment effects only a small increase in the growth rate of output per capita: less than one percentage point per year for an economy with current output ...
Working Paper
Is the speed of convergence constant?
Empirical attempts to measure the speed of convergence -- the rate at which a country's per capita income approaches its steady state relative to its distance from its steady state -- have started from the assumption that it is constant. In contrast, neoclassical models of capital accumulation usually predict that the speed of convergence decreases as income approaches its steady state. Estimating a flexible functional form which allows the speed of convergence to vary suggests that the speed of convergence actually increases as income approaches its steady state. An increasing speed of ...
Working Paper
The U.S. as a coastal nation
U.S. economic activity is overwhelmingly concentrated at its ocean and Great Lakes coasts. Economic theory suggests four possible explanations: a present-day productivity effect, a present-day quality-of-life effect, delayed adjustment following a historical productivity or quality-of-life effect, and an agglomeration effect following a historical productivity or quality-of-life effect. Controlling for correlated natural attributes such as the weather and including proximity measures which a priori do not influence quality-of-life, linear regressions suggest that the high coastal ...
Journal Article
The affordability of homeownership to middle-income Americans
From 1971 through mid-2007, the nominal national sales price of housing grew almost eightfold. Controlling for inflation, this represented a near doubling in the relative price of housing. The retrenchment in prices that began in 2007 has so far remained small compared to the earlier increase. ; As house prices climbed, many people complained that housing had become unaffordable to middle-income Americans. As early as 1998, newspapers warned that homeownership was becoming a heavy financial burden. As sales price rises accelerated in 2003 and crested in 2006, homeownership was increasingly ...