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Working Paper
A productivity model of city crowdedness
Population density varies widely across U.S. cities. A simple, static general equilibrium model suggests that moderate-sized differences in cities? total factor productivity can account for such variation. Nevertheless, the productivity required to sustain above-average population densities considerably exceeds estimates of the increase in productivity caused by such high density. In contrast, increasing returns to scale may be able to sustain multiple equilibria at below-average population densities.
Working Paper
The Size of U.S. Metropolitan Areas
Metropolitan areas—unions of nearby built-up locations within which people travel on a day-to-day basis among places of residence, employment, and consumption—serve as a fundamental unit of economic analysis. But existing delineations of U.S. metro areas—including metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), Urbanized Areas, and Commuting Zones—stray far from this conception. We develop a flexible algorithm that uses commuting flows among U.S. census tracts in 2000 to match varied interpretations of our metropolitan conception. Under a baseline parameterization that balances ...
Journal Article
The Limited Supply of Homes
Jordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.
Working Paper
Moving to high quality of life
The U.S. population has been migrating to places with high perceived quality of life. A calibrated general-equilibrium model shows that such migration follows from broad-based technological progress. Rising national wages increase demand for consumption amenities. Under a baseline parameterization, a place with amenities for which individuals would pay 5 percent of their income grows 0.3 percent faster than an otherwise identical place. Productivity is shown to be a decreasingly important determinant of local population. The faster growth of high-amenity places is considerably strengthened if ...
Working Paper
How Centralized is U.S. Metropolitan Employment?
Centralized employment remains a benchmark stylization of metropolitan land use.To address its empirical relevance, we delineate "central employment zones" (CEZs)- central business districts together with nearby concentrated employment|for 183 metropolitan areas in 2000. To do so, we first subjectively classify which census tracts in a training sample of metros belong to their metro's CEZ and then use a learning algorithm to construct a function that predicts our judgment. {{p}} Applying this prediction function to the full cross section of metros estimates the probability we would judge ...
Journal Article
Millennials, baby boomers, and rebounding multifamily home construction
Jordan Rappaport analyzes the forces driving the recent rebound in multifamily construction.
Journal Article
Why does unemployment differ persistently across metro areas?
Unemployment rates differ widely and persistently across U.S. metro areas. Metros that have experienced high or low unemployment rates in one year have tended to stay that way 10 years and even 20 years later. ; Such variation and persistence raises questions: Why don?t households move from high long-term unemployment metros to low long-term unemployment metros? Why don?t firms in need of workers move from low long-term unemployment metros to high long-term unemployment metros? ; Although such moves may seem sensible, Rappaport finds that a number of factors?a mismatch of worker skills to ...
Journal Article
What to Do about Fannie and Freddie: A Primer on Housing Finance Reform
Policymakers face several issues in reforming the current system of mortgage finance toward one in which the government plays a less direct role.
Journal Article
The demographic shift from single-family to multifamily housing
The crash of the U.S. housing market triggered the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s. Beginning in late 2009, multifamily construction rebounded strongly. Beginning in mid-2011, single-family construction began to rebound as well. But during the first half of 2013, growth of both types of construction paused. Rappaport examines the demographic forces shaping demand for residential construction. At the end of 2012, the number of occupied single-family housing units was moderately below its demographic trend level and the number of occupied multifamily housing units was considerably below ...