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Report
Tight credit conditions continue to constrain the housing recovery
The expansion of Federal Housing Administration lending has let households with imperfect credit or the inability to make a large down payment maintain access to mortgage borrowing. Rather than excluding such households, lenders have been applying strict underwriting conditions on all borrowers. Clarifying what constitutes approved lending may help relax credit conditions with minimal increase in risk.
Journal Article
Escaping the Housing Shortage
Despite the continuing economic expansion, home construction remains extremely low by historical benchmarks, constrained by the scarcity of undeveloped land in desired locations and land use regulations. Escaping the resulting housing shortage will take many years and likely require a shift toward multifamily construction, the freeing up of single-family homes by downsizing baby boomers, and the faster relative growth of medium-sized metropolitan areas.
Journal Article
Hybrid Officing Will Shift Where People and Businesses Decide to Locate
Many businesses are likely to shift to hybrid officing following the pandemic, with employees working remotely several days per week. The reduced frequency of commutes and associated decrease in traffic may fuel residential construction in outlying suburbs, especially in the largest metropolitan areas. At the same time, suburban employers may move their offices closer to city centers due to reduced space needs, eased parking constraints, and less frequent commutes.
Journal Article
Home Prices Are Overvalued but Will Decline Only Gradually
The surge in home prices since the start of the pandemic and the sharp increase in interest rates during 2022 have made purchasing a home much less affordable. Homeownership costs relative to rents suggest home prices are considerably overvalued. However, relief is unlikely in the near future: owners have an incentive to remain in their current homes until rates decrease, mitigating downward pressure on prices.
Journal Article
Downtown Office Use Has Declined, but Some Metropolitan Areas Are Faring Better than Others
Hybrid working has cut demand for office space, especially in the downtowns of medium and large metropolitan areas. However, the degree of this decline has varied considerably across metropolitan downtowns, with demand remaining solid in many.
Journal Article
Housing Services Inflation May Decline Only Gradually
The inflation rate for housing services remains about 2 percentage points above its 2019 level. Several factors are likely to slow its decline, including more than a decade of underbuilding prior to the pandemic, limited capacity to increase the nation’s housing stock, and the limited number of homes available for sale due to the steeper mortgage rates owners would face if they sold and purchased a different home.
Journal Article
Accounting for Changes in Downtown Office Occupancy Since the Pandemic
Recent changes in downtown office occupancy primarily reflect factors other than the composition of employment.
Journal Article
The affordability of homeownership to middle-income Americans
From 1971 through mid-2007, the nominal national sales price of housing grew almost eightfold. Controlling for inflation, this represented a near doubling in the relative price of housing. The retrenchment in prices that began in 2007 has so far remained small compared to the earlier increase. ; As house prices climbed, many people complained that housing had become unaffordable to middle-income Americans. As early as 1998, newspapers warned that homeownership was becoming a heavy financial burden. As sales price rises accelerated in 2003 and crested in 2006, homeownership was increasingly ...
Journal Article
What are the benefits of hosting a major league sports franchise?
Over the last few decades the number of U.S. metropolitan areas large enough to host a franchise from one of the four major professional sports leagues has soared. Even as major league baseball, football, basketball and hockey have expanded to include more franchises, demand by metro areas continues to exceed supply. Metro areas have thus been forced to compete with each other to retain and attract franchises. ; The resulting large public spending on new sports facilities has been quite controversial. Usually these costly projects are justified by claims that hosting a sports franchise spurs ...
Journal Article
Why does unemployment differ persistently across metro areas?
Unemployment rates differ widely and persistently across U.S. metro areas. Metros that have experienced high or low unemployment rates in one year have tended to stay that way 10 years and even 20 years later. ; Such variation and persistence raises questions: Why don?t households move from high long-term unemployment metros to low long-term unemployment metros? Why don?t firms in need of workers move from low long-term unemployment metros to high long-term unemployment metros? ; Although such moves may seem sensible, Rappaport finds that a number of factors?a mismatch of worker skills to ...