Search Results
Briefing
Building A Pipeline Between Producer and Consumer Prices
Do rapidly rising producer prices signal pain ahead for consumers? We take a fresh look at the relationship between producer and consumer price indexes. We document a correlation between upstream producer prices and the Fed's preferred measure of consumer price inflation (the personal consumption expenditure price index). Using a statistical model, we find that that levels and growth rates of producer prices have a statistically significant impact on consumer price inflation. Gaps between the two price indexes tend to normalize over time, which, given recent data, suggests that upward ...
Journal Article
Research Spotlight: Adapting Sovereign Debt to Climate Change
As stronger hurricanes become more common due to climate change, understanding what factors drive recovery is increasingly important. How quickly a country recovers is influenced by its ability to attract foreign capital — making recovery challenging for emerging economies, as investors are more reluctant to invest in countries that are more likely to default on loans. The challenge for these countries to secure capital suggests an area for financial instruments to be adapted to better suit their needs. To gain a clearer understanding of the interplay between climate-related disasters and ...
Journal Article
How Far Is Labor Force Participation from Its Trend?
Labor force participation in the United States has dropped a percentage point since the pandemic began. Analyzing how participation has evolved for various groups of the population suggests that more than two-thirds of this decline has been due to persistent “trend” factors. The remainder is due to temporary economic conditions, or “cyclical” factors. Estimates project that trend factors—driven largely by population aging—could push labor participation down an additional percentage point over the next decade.