Search Results
Conference Paper
The renminbi’s role in the global monetary system
Conference Paper
How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?
The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom - that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization - a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. We employ various econometric techniques and a comprehensive new dataset to analyze the link between growth and volatility. Our findings suggest that, while the basic negative ...
Discussion Paper
The relation between skill levels and the cyclical variability of employment, hours and wages
This paper uses micro data to examine differences in the cyclical variability of employment, hours, and wages for skilled and unskilled workers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that, at the aggregate level, skilled and unskilled workers are subject to essentially the same degree of cyclical variation in wages. That is, relative offer wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers are acyclical. However, we do find important differences in the patterns of employment and hours variation for skilled vs. unskilled workers when a college degree is used as a proxy for skill. ...
Conference Paper
Commentary: the dog and the frisbee
Conference Paper
Role reversal in global finance
Working Paper
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?
The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom–that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization–a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. We employ various econometric techniques and a comprehensive new data set to analyze the link between growth and volatility. Our findings suggest that, while the basic negative ...
Working Paper
Dollarization Waves: New Evidence from a Comprehensive International Bond Database
We investigate how the U.S. dollar's prominence in the denomination of international debt securities has evolved in recent decades, using a comprehensive global dataset with far more extensive coverage than datasets used in prior literature. We find no monotonic dollarization or de-dollarization trend; instead, the dollar's share exhibits a wavelike pattern. We document three dollarization waves since the 1960s. The last wave, following the global financial crisis, lifted the dollar's share nearly back to its level at the euro's launch in 2000. Our findings are robust to composition and ...
Working Paper
Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
We develop a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers from financial variables. We consider cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption and investment) and financial variables (equity and house prices and interest rates). The global macro factor plays a major role in explaining G-7 business cycles, but there are also sizeable spillovers from equity and house ...
Journal Article
The Future of Money and Its Implications for Society, Central Banks, and the International Monetary System
This new wave of financial innovations has broad implications for society, banking, and central banking: Digital platforms can ease entry for financial services providers, increase transactional efficiency, and widen access to and participation in the financial system. They could also decrease the use of cash and alter the U.S. dollar's role as today's vehicle currency.