Journal Article
Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?
Pollard, Patricia S.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2001-01)
The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a ...
Review , Volume 83 , Issue Jan , Pages 25-40

Working Paper
Constructing and using national and regional TWEXs: the case for chaining
Pollard, Patricia S.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (1998)
The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates spurred the development of trade-weighted exchange rates(TWEXs). These indexes measure changes in the average foreign exchange value of a currency over time. The construction of a TWEX index requires numerous decisions. Producers of TWEXs are revisiting many of their construction decisions because, with the advent of the single currency in Europe, all TWEXs will have to be modified. In addition, countries adopting the single currency may find it useful to develop their own TWEXs, similar to those that exist for regions within ...
Working Papers , Paper 1998-012

Journal Article
Reforming Social Security: a welfare analysis
Pecchenino, Rowena A.; Pollard, Patricia S. (1998-03)
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 19-30

Journal Article
Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports
Pollard, Patricia S.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (1999-03)
The Asian financial and economic crisis has attracted much attention to the trade links among the United States and countries throughout Asia. Until the crisis, U.S. exports to East Asia were growing rapidly. In this article, Patricia S. Pollard and Cletus C. Coughlin examine the abrupt decline in exports and provide estimates of the sizes of the export shock both to the U.S. economy as a whole and to specific sectors. More than half the industries they studied experienced declines in exports to East Asia of more than 15 percent; however, focusing solely on the export data overstates the ...
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 33-46

Working Paper
The effects of aging and myopia on the pay-as-you-go social security systems of the G7
Pecchenino, Rowena A.; Pollard, Patricia S. (1999)
The Social Security systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when populations were young and the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this downward trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an overlapping generations model in which growth is endogenously fueled by individuals' investments in physical and human capital and by the government's investment in human capital via public education expenditures. We analyze individuals' behavior when ...
Working Papers , Paper 1998-023

Journal Article
Trade between the United States and Eastern Europe
Pollard, Patricia S. (1994-07)
Review , Issue Jul , Pages 25-46

Journal Article
For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac
Pollard, Patricia S.; Pakko, Michael R. (1996-01)
Review , Volume 78 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-22

Journal Article
Finally falling: unemployment duration
Pollard, Patricia S. (1998-07)
National Economic Trends , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Burgernomics: a big MacT guide to purchasing power parity
Pollard, Patricia S.; Pakko, Michael R. (2003-11)
The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) has long been a staple of international economic analysis. Recent years have seen the rise in popularity of a tongue-in-cheek, fast-food version of PPP: The Big Mac? index. In this article, Michael Pakko and Patricia Pollard describe how comparisons of Big Mac prices around the world contain the ingredients necessary to demonstrate the fundamental principles of PPP. They show that the Big Mac index does nearly as well as more comprehensive measures of international price comparisons and that deviations from ?McParity? illustrate why PPP often ...
Review , Volume 85 , Issue Nov , Pages 9-28

Journal Article
State exports and the Asian crisis
Pollard, Patricia S.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2000-01)
The Asian crisis caused a decline in most states' exports of manufactured goods to East Asia during 1998, but the severity of the decline varied across states. In this article, Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard estimate the size of this export shock for all states. Primarily because western states tend to be more dependent on East Asian markets for export sales, they were hit the hardest by the sharp reduction in Asian demand for U.S.-produced manufactured goods. Of the states in which the decline in exports to East Asia lowered the growth of manufacturing output by more than one ...
Review , Volume 82 , Issue Jan , Pages 3-14