Search Results
Discussion Paper
What Might Cuts in Federal Government Spending Mean for the Fifth District?
In a previous post, we examined the concentration of the federal government workforce in the Fifth Federal Reserve District — a region that includes the government-concentrated District of Columbia and surrounding areas in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. However, workforce concentration is just one aspect of federal government spending in our district. Virginia and Maryland, for example, have consistently been among the top recipients of federal contract dollars. To understand the extent to which the Fifth District relies on the federal government requires examining not only the ...
Journal Article
The Rise and Decline of Petersburg, Va.
Early Virginians looked at Petersburg, with its location on the Appomattox River, as a town of economic vibrancy and promise. Incorporated in 1748 by the Virginia General Assembly, the town fulfilled that early promise and grew to become the commonwealth's third independent city in 1850. But turmoil as well as prosperity for Petersburg were ahead. {{p}} Throughout its 270 years, three factors have dominated Petersburg's economic history: tobacco, trade, and transportation. The city's early economic prominence was due to its tobacco plantations and warehouses as well as various mills powered ...
Briefing
How Does the Foreign-Born Population Affect Labor Force Growth?
Long-term demographic trends, especially population aging, have been a major factor contributing to the slowdown in labor force growth. Once age composition is considered, a large part of the apparent decline in participation among native workers reflects shifting age structure rather than changes in actual labor force participation rates.Foreign-born workers have provided a steady positive contribution to labor force growth. Their role has grown mainly because of population expansion through net migration, although they too show signs of an aging profile over time.These patterns suggest that ...
Journal Article
States' Efforts To Curtail Unauthorized Immigration Draw More Attention
Much is known about the effects of unauthorized immigration on the nation as a whole. But little research has been done so far on the impact of states? efforts to curb the influx?efforts such as the E-Verify program.
Working Paper
Taxation, Compliance, and Clandestine Activities
We investigate the delicate balance policymakers have to strike between raising tax revenues for public good provision and controlling the distortionary effects of taxes on (i) tax evasion, (ii) total work hours, and (iii) the allocation of work hours to illegal activities. These distortions lower the constrained optimal tax rate and result in the under-provision of the public good. This under-provision problem is mitigated when surplus from the audit agency is seamlessly transferred to the taxing authorities. Extensions of the basic model incorporate agent heterogeneity and a more general ...
Working Paper
Unauthorized Immigration and Fiscal Competition
Reflecting upon recent enforcement policy activism of US states and countries within the EU towards unauthorized workers, we examine the overlap of centralized (federal) and decentralized (state or regional) enforcement of immigration policies in a spatial context. Among other results, we find that if interstate mobility is costless, internal enforcement is overprovided, and border enforcement and local goods are underprovided when regions take more responsibility in deciding policies. This leads to higher levels of unauthorized immigration under decentralization. Interregional migration ...
Working Paper
Learning About Consumer Uncertainty from Qualitative Surveys: As Uncertain As Ever
We study diffusion indices constructed from qualitative surveys to provide real-time assessments of various aspects of economic activity. In particular, we highlight the role of diffusion indices as estimates of change in a quasi extensive margin, and characterize their distribution, focusing on the uncertainty implied by both sampling and the polarization of participants' responses. Because qualitative tendency surveys generally cover multiple questions around a topic, a key aspect of this uncertainty concerns the coincidence of responses, or the degree to which polarization comoves, across ...
Journal Article
Land-Use Regulations: A View from the Fifth District
Land and housing can be costly in a city or region for a number of possible reasons. Places with recreational or cultural attractions or other amenities draw population so the demand for housing and, consequently, land is high in those areas. Prices could also be high at some locations if the supply of land is constrained by the geography. In some areas, however, the price of land is high as the result of heavy land-use regulations (LURs), which restrict the availability of houses.
Briefing
Impacts of Government Spending Changes on Local Economies
Local multipliers measure how an economic shock in a specific region (such as a change in federal government spending in that region) affects the local economy.Based on our survey of studies, a reasonable estimate range for local fiscal multipliers is:An income multiplier of 1.3-2.0, or an additional $1 of government spending increasing local GDP by 1.3 to 2.0 times.An employment multiplier of 10-30 jobs in the local economy for every additional $1 million in government spending (or $33,000 to $100,000 per job).