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Discussion Paper
Medicare and Financial Health across the United States
Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Wallace, Jacob; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2020-07-08)
Consumer financial strain varies enormously across the United States. One pernicious source of financial strain is debt in collections—debt that is more than 120 days past due and that has been sold to a collections agency. In Massachusetts, the average person has less than $100 in collections debt, while in Texas, the average person has more than $300. In this post, we discuss our recent staff report that exploits the fact that virtually all Americans are universally covered by Medicare at 65 to show that health insurance not only improves financial health on average, but also is a major ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200708e

Discussion Paper
The ‘Banking Desert’ Mirage
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Perlman, Davy; Morgan, Donald P. (2018-01-10)
Unbanked households are often imagined to live in urban neighborhoods devoid of banks, but is that really the case? Our map of U.S. banking deserts reveals that most are not in urban areas, where financial exclusion may be endemic, but in actual deserts?largely in the sparsely populated, rural West. Across states, we find that the share of the population in a banking desert is unrelated to the share that is unbanked. If distance from a bank is not what causes financial exclusion, then motivating banks to locate closer to the unbanked may not promote financial inclusion.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180110

Report
World welfare is rising: estimation using nonparametric bounds on welfare measures
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2014-12-01)
I take a new approach to measuring world inequality and welfare over time by constructing robust bounds for these series instead of imposing parametric assumptions to compute point estimates. I derive sharp bounds on the Atkinson inequality index that are valid for any underlying distribution of income conditional on given fractile shares and the Gini coefficient. While the bounds are too wide to reject the hypothesis that world inequality may have risen, I show that world welfare rose unambiguously between 1970 and 2006. This conclusion is valid for alternative methods of dealing with ...
Staff Reports , Paper 662

Journal Article
Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Inequality in the United States
Avtar, Ruchi; Blickle, Kristian S.; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Janakiraman, Janavi; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2023-06-01)
The authors conduct a review of the existing academic literature to outline possible links between climate change and inequality in the United States. First, researchers have shown that the impact of both physical and transition risks may be uneven across location, income, race, and age. This is driven by a region’s geography as well as its ability to adapt. Second, measures that individuals and governments take to adapt to climate change and to transition to lower emissions risk increasing inequality. Finally, while federal aid and insurance coverage can mitigate the direct impact of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 29 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-39

Discussion Paper
Does the BCG Vaccine Protect Against Coronavirus? Applying an Economist’s Toolkit to a Medical Question
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bluhm, Richard (2020-05-11)
As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, there is an intense search for treatments and vaccines, with numerous trials running in multiple countries. Several observers and prominent news outlets have noticed that countries still administering an old vaccine against tuberculosis—the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine—have had fewer coronavirus cases and fewer deaths per capita in the early stages of the outbreak. But is that correlation really strong evidence that the BCG vaccine provides some defense against COVID-19? In this post, we look at the incidence of coronavirus cases along ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200511

Discussion Paper
How Equitable Has the COVID Labor Market Recovery Been?
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2022-06-30)
One of the two monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve System— one-half of our dual mandate—is to aim for “maximum employment.” However, labor market outcomes are not monolithic, and different demographic and economic groups experience different labor market outcomes. In this post, we analyze heterogeneity in employment rates by race and ethnicity, focusing on the COVID-19 recession of March-April 2020 and its aftermath. We find that the demographic employment gaps temporarily increased during the onset of the pandemic but narrowed back by spring 2022 to close to where they were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630a

Discussion Paper
Was the 2021-22 Rise in Inflation Equitable?
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2022-06-30)
In our previous post, we discussed how the labor market recovery—the “maximum employment” half of the Federal Reserve System’s dual mandate—featured not only a return of overall employment rates to pre-pandemic levels, but also a narrowing of racial and ethnic gaps in employment rates. In this post, we take up the second half of the dual mandate—price stability—and discuss heterogeneity in inflation rates faced by different demographic groups during the rise in inflation in2021-22. We find that, in contrast to inequalities in employment rates, disparities in inflation rates have ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630b

Discussion Paper
The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bram, Jason; Dussault, Nicole (2016-02-29)
Since the 1940s, employers that provide health insurance for their employees can deduct the cost as a business expense, but the government does not treat the value of that coverage as taxable income. This exclusion of employer-provided health insurance from taxable income?$248 billion in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office?is a huge subsidy for health spending. Many economists cite the distortionary effects of this tax subsidy as an important reason for why U.S. health care spending accounts for such a large share of the economy and why spending historically has grown so ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160229

Discussion Paper
Do Veterans Face Disparities in the Labor Market—And What Accounts for Them?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Garcia, Dan; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2023-05-25)
We continue our series on military service and consider veterans’ earnings and labor market outcomes. We find that veterans earn more than 12 percent less and are 4 percentage points (18 percent) more likely to be out of the labor force than comparable nonveterans. Interestingly, accounting for veterans’ differences from comparable nonveterans in terms of education and disability status largely explains these labor market differences.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230525b

Report
The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Nober, William; Meyerson, Lindsay; Avtar, Ruchi (2020-11-01)
Did Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act affect the course of the COVID-19 pandemic? We answer this question using a regression discontinuity design for counties near the borders of states that expanded Medicaid with states that did not. Relevant covariates change continuously across the Medicaid expansion frontier. We find that (1) health insurance changes discontinuously at the frontier, (2) COVID-19 testing is discontinuously larger in Medicaid-expanding states, and (3) the fraction of beds occupied in ICUs is discontinuously smaller in Medicaid-expanding states. We also find ...
Staff Reports , Paper 948

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