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Discussion Paper
How Have Racial and Ethnic Earnings Gaps Changed after COVID-19?
Chatterji-Len, Kasey; García, Daniel I.; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2022-10-20)
Racial and ethnic earnings disparities have been salient features of the U.S. economy for decades. Between the pandemic-driven recession in 2020 and the rising inflation since 2021, workers’ real and nominal earnings have seen rapid change. To get a sense of how recent economic conditions have affected earnings disparities, we examine real and nominal weekly earnings trends for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and white workers. We find that average real weekly earnings have been declining in the past year, but less so for Black and Hispanic workers than for white and Asian workers. Black and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221020a

Discussion Paper
How Equitable Has the COVID Labor Market Recovery Been?
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2022-06-30)
One of the two monetary policy goals of the Federal Reserve System— one-half of our dual mandate—is to aim for “maximum employment.” However, labor market outcomes are not monolithic, and different demographic and economic groups experience different labor market outcomes. In this post, we analyze heterogeneity in employment rates by race and ethnicity, focusing on the COVID-19 recession of March-April 2020 and its aftermath. We find that the demographic employment gaps temporarily increased during the onset of the pandemic but narrowed back by spring 2022 to close to where they were ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220630a

Discussion Paper
Understanding the Racial and Income Gap in COVID-19: Public Transportation and Home Crowding
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2021-01-12)
This is the second post in a series that aims to understand the gap in COVID-19 intensity by race and income. In our first post, we looked at how comorbidities, uninsurance rates, and health resources may help to explain the race and income gap observed in COVID-19 intensity. We found that a quarter of the income gap and more than a third of the racial gap in case rates are explained by health status and system factors. In this post, we look at two factors related to indoor density—namely public transportation use and home crowding. Here, we will aim to understand whether these two factors ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210112b

Report
Inequality Within Countries is Falling: Underreporting Robust Estimates of World Poverty, Inequality, and the Global Distribution of Income
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X.; Chatterji-Len, Kasey; Nober, William (2024-09-01)
Household surveys suffer from persistent and growing underreporting. We propose a novel procedure to adjust reported survey incomes for underreporting by estimating a model of misreporting whose main parameter of interest is the elasticity of regional national accounts income to regional survey income, which is closely related to the elasticity of underreporting with respect to income. We find this elasticity to be substantial but roughly constant over time, implying a large but relatively constant correction to survey-derived inequality estimates. Underreporting of income by the bottom 50 ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1125

Discussion Paper
Transition Risks in the Fed’s Second District and the Nation
Blickle, Kristian S.; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2023-11-09)
Climate change may pose two types of risk to the economy—from policies and consumer preferences as the energy system transitions to a lower dependence on carbon (in other words, transition risks) or from damages stemming from the direct impacts of climate change (physical risks). In this post, we follow up on our previous post that studied the exposure of the Federal Reserve’s Second District to physical risks by considering how transition risks affect different parts of the District and how they differentially affect the District relative to the nation. We find that, relative to other ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231109

Discussion Paper
Does the BCG Vaccine Protect Against Coronavirus? Applying an Economist’s Toolkit to a Medical Question
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bluhm, Richard (2020-05-11)
As COVID-19 has spread across the globe, there is an intense search for treatments and vaccines, with numerous trials running in multiple countries. Several observers and prominent news outlets have noticed that countries still administering an old vaccine against tuberculosis—the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine—have had fewer coronavirus cases and fewer deaths per capita in the early stages of the outbreak. But is that correlation really strong evidence that the BCG vaccine provides some defense against COVID-19? In this post, we look at the incidence of coronavirus cases along ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200511

Discussion Paper
Understanding the Racial and Income Gap in Covid-19: Health Insurance, Comorbidities, and Medical Facilities
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2021-01-12)
Our previous work documents that low-income and majority-minority areas were considerably more affected by COVID-19, as captured by markedly higher case and death rates. In a four-part series starting with this post, we seek to understand the reasons behind these income and racial disparities. Do disparities in health status translate into disparities in COVID-19 intensity? Does the health system play a role through health insurance and hospital capacity? Can disparities in COVID-19 intensity be explained by high-density, crowded environments? Does social distancing, pollution, or the age ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210112a

Discussion Paper
The “Cadillac Tax”: Driving Firms to Change Their Plans?
Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Bram, Jason; Dussault, Nicole (2016-02-29)
Since the 1940s, employers that provide health insurance for their employees can deduct the cost as a business expense, but the government does not treat the value of that coverage as taxable income. This exclusion of employer-provided health insurance from taxable income?$248 billion in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office?is a huge subsidy for health spending. Many economists cite the distortionary effects of this tax subsidy as an important reason for why U.S. health care spending accounts for such a large share of the economy and why spending historically has grown so ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160229

Report
Health spending slowed down in spite of the crisis
DiMaggio, Marco; Kermani, Amir; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Mazewski, Matthew; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L. (2016-06-01)
We exploit plausibly exogenous regulatory changes in the mortgage lending market to estimate causal effects of the financial boom and bust on personal income in the health sector. We find that counties that were exogenously more exposed to the crisis because of the regulatory reforms experienced a greater rise in the size of the health sector over the course of the boom and the bust relative to control counties, with the differential persisting through the recovery. We provide suggestive evidence that increased mortality during the bust and greater capital investment during the boom ...
Staff Reports , Paper 781

Discussion Paper
A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs
Pierce, Beckett; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Pham, Thu (2026-02-03)
We are enhancing our set of Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) by adding a set of metrics on consumer spending with data presented by income, education, race and ethnicity, age, and urban status. The data will help track the evolution of aggregate behavior by analyzing the spending of specific groups in a more timely manner than is possible using public surveys.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20260203a

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