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Journal Article
Higher Treasury Supply Is Likely to Put Upward Pressure on Interest Rates
U.S. government debt has been increasing over the past two decades and is expected to continue to increase. The higher supply of Treasury securities issued to fund this debt is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates. This pressure, in turn, could increase both term premiums and the long-run neutral rate.
Working Paper
Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment
Historically high debt-to-GDP levels in the United States have raised concerns about future financial market stability and fiscal sustainability. We use high-frequency data and consider Treasury futures price changes within narrow windows around auction announcements to identify two distinct Treasury supply shocks: debt expansion shocks that capture changes in the level of public debt, and maturity extension shocks that reflect changes in the maturity structure. We find that debt expansion shocks raise yields across the curve by increasing term premia, leading to tighter financial conditions. ...