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Journal Article
The Texas economy: beyond the boom and bust
Texas Weekly Employment Estimate Provides New, Early Economic Insights
In this environment where economic conditions change very quickly and can reverse with the spread of the virus, tracking the Texas economy requires a timelier indicator than standard quarterly and monthly economic measures.
Journal Article
Texas economy to ride higher in the saddle in 2011
The Texas economy grew moderately in 2010, outperforming most other states. Jobs increased by 209,000, a growth rate of about 2 percent?near the state?s average pace since 1980. Strength in the high-tech and energy sectors was an important source of Texas? economic might relative to other parts of the country. The state also suffered less from housing price declines. ; Leading indicators, generally positive at the end of 2010, suggest an improving outlook in 2011 as consumers and businesses regain confidence in the economy. The Dallas Fed forecasting model projects Texas job growth of 2.5 ...
Journal Article
The Texas index of leading economic indicators: a revision and further evaluation
In this article, Keith R. Phillips revises the Texas index of leading economic indicators that he introduced two years ago. He does so in response to recent structural changes in the state economy and the availability of new data. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has produced the Texas leading index monthly since July 1988. ; Using a newly developed technique for evaluating leading indexes, Phillips finds that the revised Texas leading index has performed well in predicting movements in the Texas economy since 1981. He also finds that monthly revisions in the leading index are generally ...
Journal Article
Texas economy moves from recovery to expansion
Leading economic indicators have increased in recent months, suggesting growing momentum going into 2012.
Working Paper
A new monthly index of the Texas business cycle
The timing, length and severity of economic recessions and expansions in a state are important to businesses seeking to set up operations or expand in those areas. Given a limited amount of data at the state level and their sometimes inconsistent movements, it is not straight forward to define a state business cycle. In this article I attempt to measure the Texas business cycle using a technique developed by Stock and Watson (1989,1991) that statistically estimates the underlying comovement in broad indicators of the state?s economy. The new Texas Coincident Index (TCI) is constructed with ...
Working Paper
Seasonal adjustment of state and metro ces jobs data
Hybrid time series data often require special care in estimating seasonal factors. Series such as the state and metro area Current Employment Statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are composed of two different source series that often have two different seasonal patterns. In this paper we address the process to test for differing seasonal patterns within the hybrid series. We also discuss how to apply differing seasonal factors to the separate parts of the hybrid series. Currently the BLS simply juxtaposes the two different sets of seasonal factors at the transition ...
Journal Article
Composite index: a new measure of El Paso's economy
Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth
Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.