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Journal Article
Blue-collar outlook not so blue in Texas
Journal Article
Lower Oil Prices, Tight Labor Markets to Restrain Texas Growth in 2019
Texas' economy should expand in 2019, though at a slower rate than in the prior year. A decline in oil prices in late 2018, tight labor markets and the possibility of restrictive U.S. trade and tariff policies weigh on the outlook for the state.
Journal Article
The Texas index of leading economic indicators: a revision and further evaluation
In this article, Keith R. Phillips revises the Texas index of leading economic indicators that he introduced two years ago. He does so in response to recent structural changes in the state economy and the availability of new data. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has produced the Texas leading index monthly since July 1988. ; Using a newly developed technique for evaluating leading indexes, Phillips finds that the revised Texas leading index has performed well in predicting movements in the Texas economy since 1981. He also finds that monthly revisions in the leading index are generally ...
Journal Article
Efficient methods to achieve clean air
Journal Article
Banking industry evolution along the Texas-Mexico border
Journal Article
What's in store for Texas cities
Working Paper
A closer look at potential distortions in state RGDP: the case of the Texas energy sector
Surprisingly, from 1997 to 2010 Texas RGDP in oil and gas extraction was strongly negatively correlated with oil prices and with factors of production such as employment and the drilling rig count. It also had a slight negative correlation with physical production of oil and gas. In Texas the oil and gas sector is large and volatile enough to have a significant influence on overall RGDP growth so that when oil prices spike up (down) Texas RGDP generally weakens (strengths), which is in contrast to other indicators such as state job growth and real personal income. In this paper we investigate ...
Journal Article
The effect of the growing service sector on wages in Texas
In Texas during the 1980s, service-sector employment rose, goods-sector employment declined, and the average real wage increased only slightly. Because service-sector jobs pay lower average wages than goods-sector jobs, analysts have suggested that the growing proportion of jobs in the service sector was an important factor suppressing overall wage gains in the state. ; Keith R. Phillips finds that the increasing share of service-sector jobs only slightly dampened wage growth in Texas during the 1980s. Slow wage growth primarily resulted from weak wage expansion in both the goods and service ...
Journal Article
Oil demand and prices in the 1990s
Journal Article
Groundwater Markets Slowly Evolve in Ever-Thirstier Texas
Texas’ growing population is increasing the demand for water, a commodity that in many parts of the state is subject to wide swings from abundance during wet cycles to shortfall during droughts. Water markets offer one way to help meet some of the growing need. However, legal challenges and a variety of government entities overseeing water use complicate water markets’ applicability.