Search Results
Speech
Balance Sheet Normalization: Monitoring Reserve Conditions and Understanding Repo Market Pressures
Remarks at 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Working Paper
Regime-switching in expectations over the business cycle
In this paper the authors argue that a plausible reason why output and other major U.S. macroeconomic time series seem to follow a Markov switching process might be strictly related to expectations. The authors show that a time series of expectations of future output from the Survey of Professional Forecasters is the only one among the many they analyze that has switching properties compatible with those of output. Starting from this empirical evidence the authors present a business cycle model with shocks to expectations (sunspots) that produces time series with the same properties as the ...
Speech
Reflections on the Early Days of Reserve Management Purchases and the Maintenance of Ample Reserves
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech
The Evolution of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Implementation Framework
Remarks at the New York Fed – Columbia SIPA Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Journal Article
Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2002
Despite the lackluster performance of the U.S. economy, the profitability of the U.S. commercial banking industry was again high in 2002, and the return on bank assets reached its highest level in more than three decades. Profitability was spurred in considerable part by declines in market interest rates to extraordinarily low levels. Short-term interest rates were low throughout 2002 as a result of the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing the year before in response to economic weakness, and longer-term rates fell to multidecade lows by year-end. Nevertheless, the yield curve steepened on ...
Speech
Supplying Ample Reserves
Remarks at 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech
Repo Market Structure and Monetary Policy Implementation
Remarks at The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning Workshop, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Working Paper
Financial market perceptions of recession risk
Over the Great Moderation period in the United States, we find that corporate credit spreads embed crucial information about the one-year-ahead probability of recession, as evidenced by both in- and out-of-sample fit. Furthermore, the incidence of ?false positive? predictions of recession is dramatically reduced by utilizing a bivariate model that includes a measure of credit spreads along with the slope of the yield curve; indeed, these bivariate models provide much better forecasting performance than any combination of univariate models. We also find that optimal (Bayesian) model ...
Speech
Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead
Remarks at 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech
Reserve Management and the Fed’s System Open Market Account: Recent Experience and Insights from Surveys
Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference, Fernandina Beach, Florida.