Search Results
Speech
Facing Quarter-End Pressures: Understanding the Repo Market and Federal Reserve Tools
Remarks at New York University Stern School of Business, New York City.
Speech
Disentangling Messages from the Treasury Market
Remarks at 2023 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech
Balance Sheet Reduction: Progress to Date and a Look Ahead
Remarks at 2024 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech
Market Intelligence and the Monetary Policy Process
Remarks at the Deutsche Bundesbank – Representative Office New York, New York City.
Journal Article
Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2002
Despite the lackluster performance of the U.S. economy, the profitability of the U.S. commercial banking industry was again high in 2002, and the return on bank assets reached its highest level in more than three decades. Profitability was spurred in considerable part by declines in market interest rates to extraordinarily low levels. Short-term interest rates were low throughout 2002 as a result of the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing the year before in response to economic weakness, and longer-term rates fell to multidecade lows by year-end. Nevertheless, the yield curve steepened on ...
Speech
Recent Developments in Treasury Market Liquidity and Funding Conditions
Remarks at the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC.
Journal Article
Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2003
Amid a strengthening economic expansion, U.S. commercial banks remained highly profitable in 2003. Return on assets reached a record level for the second year in a row, and return on equity was near the top of its recent range. Banks' profits were bolstered by decreased loan-loss provisions as a rising economy and considerable debt refinancing at very low interest rates led to lower delinquency rates on business and household loans. Fees associated with record mortgage refinancing activity and robust corporate bond issuance boosted non-interest income. Increases in non-interest expense were ...
Speech
Transcript of Roberto Perli on the Macro Musings Podcast
Slowing the pace of its balance sheet runoff is an important step the Fed can take to more effectively manage risks while allowing the banking system to adapt to lower levels of reserves.
Working Paper
Economic and regulatory capital allocation for revolving retail exposures
The latest revision of the Internal Ratings Based approach of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's New Capital Accord Proposal for retail portfolios contains a significant innovation relative to previous versions: the recognition that, for revolving credits, future margin income will be available to cover losses before a bank's capital is threatened. We assemble a mini-portfolio of revolving exposures and we compare the capital charges generated by the latest Basel's formula with the capital charges generated by two possible earnings-at-risk internal capital allocation models. We find ...
Working Paper
Financial market perceptions of recession risk
Over the Great Moderation period in the United States, we find that corporate credit spreads embed crucial information about the one-year-ahead probability of recession, as evidenced by both in- and out-of-sample fit. Furthermore, the incidence of ?false positive? predictions of recession is dramatically reduced by utilizing a bivariate model that includes a measure of credit spreads along with the slope of the yield curve; indeed, these bivariate models provide much better forecasting performance than any combination of univariate models. We also find that optimal (Bayesian) model ...