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Working Paper
The effects of female labor force participation on obesity
This paper assesses whether a causal relationship exists between recent increases in female labor force participation and the increased prevalence of obesity amongst women. The expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) in the 1980s and 1990s have been established by prior literature as having generated variation in female labor supply, particularly amongst single mothers. Here, we use this plausibly exogenous variation in female labor supply to identify the effect of labor force participation on obesity status. We use data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and replicate ...
Working Paper
Numerical simulation of nonoptimal dynamic equilibrium models
In this paper we present a recursive method for the computation of dynamic competitive equilibria in models with heterogeneous agents and market frictions. This method is based on a convergent operator over an expanded set of state variables. The fixed point of this operator defines the set of all Markovian equilibria. We study approximation properties of the operator as well as the convergence of the moments of simulated sample paths. We apply our numerical algorithm to two growth models, an overlapping generations economy with money, and an asset pricing model with financial frictions.
Working Paper
What happened to the US stock market? Accounting for the last 50 years
The extreme volatility of stock market values has been the subject of a large body of literature. Previous research focused on the short run because of a widespread belief that, in the long run, the market reverts to well understood fundamentals. Our work suggests this belief should be questioned as well. First, we show actual dividends cannot account for the secular trends of stock market values. We then consider a more comprehensive measure of capital income. This measure displays large secular fluctuations that roughly coincide with changes in stock market trends. Under perfect foresight, ...
Journal Article
Households during the Great Recession: the financial accelerator in action?
Households are the sector that the financial accelerator appears to have hit hardest, according to the data.
Working Paper
A macroeconomic analysis of obesity
This paper tries to understand the underlying causes of the rapid increase in obesity rates over recent decades. In particular, we propose a dynamic general equilibrium model to derive the quantitative implications of a decline in the relative (monetary and time) cost of food prepared away from home on the caloric intake of the average American adult over the last forty years. Two channels that lower this relative cost are considered. First, productivity improvements in the production of food prepared away from home. We and that this channel is qualitatively consistent with expenditure trends ...
Journal Article
Can trade links transmit a European crisis?
A GIIPS crisis wouldn't have too strong an effect on the U.S. economy, but an EU-wide crisis may be a serious concern.
Working Paper
Problems in the numerical simulation of models with heterogeneous agents and economic distortions
Our work has been concerned with the numerical simulation of dynamic economies with heterogeneous agents and economic distortions. Recent research has drawn attention to inherent difficulties in the computation of competitive equilibria for these economies: A continuous Markovian solution may fail to exist, and some commonly used numerical algorithms may not deliver accurate approximations. We consider a reliable algorithm set forth in Feng et al. (2009), and discuss problems related to the existence and computation of Markovian equilibria, as well as convergence and accuracy properties. We ...
Journal Article
The European debt crisis and U.S. economic growth
The recent strengthening of the correlations between U.S. GDP growth and that of Mexico, Canada, and Euro-19 validates further consideration of the performance of U.S. trade partners for growth.
Working Paper
Analysis of numerical errors
This paper provides a general framework for the quantitative analysis of stochastic dynamic models. We review convergence properties of some numerical algorithms and available methods to bound approximation errors. We then address convergence and accuracy properties of the simulated moments. Our purpose is to provide an asymptotic theory for the computation, simulation-based estimation, and testing of dynamic economies. The theoretical analysis is complemented with several illustrative examples. We study both optimal and non-optimal economies. Optimal economies generate smooth laws of motion ...
Journal Article
Jobless recoveries or jobless growth?
Jobless recoveries since 2000 may be attributed to a slowdown in the long-term employment trend.